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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >A Hybrid Approach to the Creation of Dynamic Risk Management Models
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A Hybrid Approach to the Creation of Dynamic Risk Management Models

机译：动态风险管理模型创建的混合方法

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摘要

Traditionally, system dynamics models are created using the "standard method": A problem is identified, a dynamic hypothesis is generated based on causal loop diagramming and reference mode definition, a stock and flow structure is created to test the dynamic hypothesis, and finally, insights and potential high-leverage policies are identified based on the resulting model. In this paper, a hybrid approach for the creation of dynamic risk management models is introduced by combining system dynamics with the STAMP accident model. The new approach relies heavily on system dynamics concepts and retains the essence of the "standard method", but the structure of the models created is linked to the STAMP safety control structure necessary to ensure safety in the entire lifecycle of complex engineering systems. The main steps of the hybrid method are introduced and the similarities and differences with the standard method are emphasized. An example is provided based on a risk management modeling project performed for the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD).
机译：传统上，系统动力学模型是使用“标准方法”创建的：识别问题，基于因果图和参考模式定义生成动态假设，创建库存和流量结构以测试动态假设，最后，根据结果​​模型确定洞察力和潜在的高杠杆政策。在本文中，通过将系统动力学与STAMP事故模型相结合，介绍了一种用于创建动态风险管理模型的混合方法。新方法在很大程度上依赖于系统动力学概念，并保留了“标准方法”的本质，但是创建的模型的结构与确保复杂工程系统的整个生命周期安全所必需的STAMP安全控制结构相关联。介绍了混合方法的主要步骤，并强调了与标准方法的异同。根据为NASA探索系统任务局（ESMD）执行的风险管理建模项目提供了一个示例。

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