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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >A participatory system dynamics modeling approach to facilitate collaborative flood risk management: A case study in the Bradano River (Italy)
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A participatory system dynamics modeling approach to facilitate collaborative flood risk management: A case study in the Bradano River (Italy)

机译：一种促进协作洪水风险管理的参与式系统动力学建模方法 - 以布拉多河（意大利）为例

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摘要

Participatory methods to support successful policy decisions regarding the complex and dynamic interactions of social, ecological, and physical processes involved in flooding must be simple, easy-to-use, and cost-efficient. Accordingly, a stepwise methodological framework based on causal loop diagrams (CLDs) was developed to address the challenge of context-sensitive initialization of key stakeholders in the collaborative flood risk management process. The methodology consists of five main stages: (i) problem definition, (ii) stakeholder analysis and identification of key groups, (iii) interviews with key stakeholders to construct individual CLDs, (iv) merging of individual CLDs to form a holistic qualitative model representing the entire system, and (v) implementation of an order-oriented reduction process to simplify the final merged CLD, thereby increasing understanding of the most important processes and feedbacks. The proposed approach for flood risk management was tested in a coastal area of southern Italy, a region historically affected by flood events. Given its simplicity, the proposed method was seen as a valuable tool to elicit and map mental models, especially when working with stakeholders who did not have prior modeling experience, Le., farmers, agricultural companies, tourist complexes, and infrastructure authorities. Indeed, all stakeholders in the current study were able to understand the process and proposed different flood risk management policies, such as land-use changes, management of damage insurance payouts, floodplain activities, and improvement of public awareness. The proposed methodology overcame multiple barriers in initializing stakeholder engagement, including the technical focus of most flood management agencies, the additional cost and time requirements for stakeholder involvement, as well as institutional structures that impede collaborative management. Moreover, the results point to socio-economic aspects of flood risk management that have not been considered in previous modeling studies.
机译：支持有关社会，生态和物理流程的复杂和动态相互作用的成功策略决定的参与式方法必须简单，易于使用和成本效益。因此，开发了一种基于因果环图（CLD）的逐步方法论框架，以解决关键利益相关者在协同洪水风险管理过程中的上下文敏感初始化的挑战。该方法包括五个主要阶段：（i）问题定义，（ii）利益相关者分析和识别关键群体，（iii）与关键利益攸关方进行面谈，以构建个别CLD，（iv）融合各个CLD，形成全面定性模型代表整个系统，（v）实施订单导向的减少过程，以简化最终合并的CLD，从而提高对最重要的过程和反馈的理解。拟议的洪水风险管理方法在意大利南部的沿海地区进行了测试，该地区是受洪水事件影响的一个地区。鉴于其简单性，所提出的方法被视为引起和地图精神模型的宝贵工具，特别是在与没有现有建模经验的利益相关者，LE。，农民，农业公司，旅游综合体和基础设施当局的利益攸关方。事实上，目前的所有利益攸关方能够了解该过程，并提出不同的洪水风险管理政策，如土地利用变化，损害保险支付管理，洪水活动和公众意识的提高。拟议的方法在初始化利益相关者参与时克服多个障碍，包括大多数洪水管理机构的技术焦点，利益攸关方参与的额外成本和时间要求，以及阻碍协作管理的制度结构。此外，在以前的建模研究中尚未考虑的洪水风险管理的业务经济方面的结果表明。

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