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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability
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Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

机译：使用系统动力学建模并更好地理解状态稳定性

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摘要

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the 'loads' generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its 'capacity' to withstand these 'loads', on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.
机译：世界可能是复杂而危险的-各国丧失国家稳定的关切日益增加。尽管每种情况都是唯一的，但仍有重要的通用过程。我们在广泛回顾文献和主题专家汇报的基础上，开发了状态稳定性的系统动力学模型。一方面，我们代表叛乱活动所产生的“负担”的性质和动态，另一方面，它们代表了国家弹性的核心特征及其承受这些“负担”的“能力”。面临的挑战是确定对稳定的威胁何时会超越国家的弹性，更重要的是，要预见在何种情况下反政权活动的其他细微变化会产生重大破坏。借助这些见解，我们可以确定适当的可行的缓解因素，以减少行为发生根本性转变的可能性，并提高稳定性的前景。

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