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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >A Prototype Desktop Simulator for Infrastructure Protection: An Application to Decision Support for Controlling Infectious Disease Outbreaks
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A Prototype Desktop Simulator for Infrastructure Protection: An Application to Decision Support for Controlling Infectious Disease Outbreaks

机译：用于基础设施保护的原型桌面模拟器：在控制传染病爆发的决策支持中的应用

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The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) project has developed a risk-informed decision support system that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions by considering many critical infrastructures and their primary inter dependencies. Initiated as a proof-of-concept in August 2003, the CIPDSS project completed a prototype model and two case studies in February 2004, using a system dynamics implementation. Since that time the project has demonstrated how the CIPDSS can assist decision makers in making informed choices by functionally representing key critical infrastructures with their inter dependencies, and computing human health & safety and economic impacts. The method of delivery to date has involved the conduct of analysis by the project developers and delivery of the results in the form of reports and presentations, often supplemented with face to face interactions with sponsors and decisions makers. This approach benefits from having the analysis conducted by the developers who best understand the underlying models and their limitations. However, this mode of delivery can be said to live more distant from those who might best benefit from being exposed to the analysis and the inherent trade-offs therein. This paper describes the development of a desktop simulation designed to help bridge this gap between the CIPDSS models & analysis and decisions makers. To illustrate the utility of this approach, an application focused on controlling infectious disease outbreaks, such as Pandemic Influenza, has been implemented.
机译：关键基础设施保护决策支持系统（CIPDSS）项目已经开发了一个风险知情的决策支持系统，该系统通过考虑许多关键基础设施及其主要相互依赖关系，为制定关键基础设施保护决策提供了见识。作为概念验证在2003年8月启动，CIPDSS项目使用系统动力学实现在2004年2月完成了原型模型和两个案例研究。自那时以来，该项目证明了CIPDSS如何通过功能性地表示关键的关键基础设施及其相互依存关系，并计算人类健康与安全以及经济影响，来帮助决策者做出明智的选择。迄今为止，交付方式涉及项目开发人员进行分析，并以报告和演示文稿的形式交付结果，通常还与发起人和决策者进行面对面的互动。这种方法得益于由开发人员进行的分析，他们可以最好地了解基础模型及其局限性。但是，可以说这种交付方式与那些可能会从分析和其固有的权衡中获得最大收益的人们相距遥远。本文描述了桌面模拟的开发，旨在帮助弥合CIPDSS模型与分析与决策者之间的鸿沟。为了说明此方法的实用性，已实施了专注于控制传染病暴发（例如大流行性流感）的应用程序。

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