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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >The contribution of system dynamics to cost benefit analysis - a case study in planning new mental health services in the UK
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The contribution of system dynamics to cost benefit analysis - a case study in planning new mental health services in the UK

机译：系统动力学对成本效益分析的贡献-英国计划新精神卫生服务的案例研究

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摘要

This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues, surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers, whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in strategic planning.Please note that any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of any health organisation.
机译：本文提供了一个示例，说明系统动力学可以为常规成本收益分析增加价值。描述了静态成本收益分析，以计划在英国范围内提供新的精神卫生服务，并说明了将该分析发展为系统动力学模型的过程。通过对问题进行更全面的了解，无论是患者接受治疗的上游还是患者来自劳动力市场的下游，以及通过模拟增强视野，动态成本收益分析都可以促进对问题的理解和计划。它对潜在利益的规模提出了质疑，提出了分阶段的问题，提出了结构性见解，考虑了劳动力市场的动态，并迫使计划与其他计划之间建立了联系。总的结论是，动态因素常常被排除在成本收益分析之外，原因仅在于它们会给决策者带来太多的复杂性，而系统动态机制则允许在不掩盖案例清晰性的情况下将这些因素包括在内。本文建议成本效益分析和系统动力学是非常互补的，应在战略规划中一起使用。请注意，所表达的任何观点或观点仅是作者的观点，不一定代表任何卫生组织的观点或观点。

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