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Modelling the Term Structure of Sterling Interbank Interest Rates

机译:英镑同业拆借利率期限结构建模

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摘要

The Sterling Interbank Money is the most volatile of all interest rate markets. The maturities traded in the UK interbank market range from overnight, severn days, 1,36 to 12 months. There are two unique features of this market and the second is the importance of the market is signalling monetary policy. The Bank of England actively interventes in the market as a controller and regulatory and uses it to adjust the liquidity position of the markets. In analysing the implication of this intervention, an expectation theory of interbank interest rates was tested and was found inadequate. The spatial structure of the term structure is very volatile and broken in nature. We model this structure using a non-linear pattern recognition learning network, which provides us with some interesting and robust results. The sucess of the model is modelling the term structure of intebank interest rates raises some important questions about expectations of market participants, efficacy of market intervention by the Bank of England, memroy effects and persistence shocks. We finally test for the efficiency of the model in identifying arbitrage possiblities in the proces sfinding a significant degree of accuracy in the arbitrage pattern as well as continuation pattern identification.
机译:英镑同业拆借货币是所有利率市场中波动最大的货币。英国银行间市场的交易期限为隔夜,数日,1.36至12个月。这个市场有两个独特的特征,第二个是市场发出货币政策信号的重要性。英格兰银行积极干预市场,作为控制者和监管者,并利用其来调节市场的流动性头寸。在分析此干预措施的含义时,测试了银行间利率的预期理论,但发现该理论不充分。术语结构的空间结构在本质上是非常易变的并且被破坏。我们使用非线性模式识别学习网络对该结构进行建模,这为我们提供了一些有趣且可靠的结果。该模型的成功之处在于,对银行间利率的期限结构建模提出了一些重要问题,涉及市场参与者的期望,英格兰银行进行市场干预的有效性,记忆效应和持续性冲击。我们最终测试了该模型在确定套利可能性中的效率,从而确定了套利模式以及连续模式识别的显着程度的准确性。

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