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首页> 外文会议>Third International Symposium on Non-Co_2 Greenhouse Gases: Scientific Understanding, Control Options and Policy Aspects Jan 21-23, 2002 Maastricht, The Netherlands >Evaluating indicators for the relative responsibility for climate change - alternatives to the Brazilian proposal and global warming potentials
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Evaluating indicators for the relative responsibility for climate change - alternatives to the Brazilian proposal and global warming potentials

机译：评估气候变化相关责任的指标-巴西提案和全球变暖潜力的替代方案

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摘要

In this paper, several indicators to describe the responsibility for climate change are discussed and evaluated. During the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol, the delegation of Brazil proposed to use the impact of historical emissions on the current temperature. The Kyoto Protocol uses current emissions weighted by 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) as the basis. As a powerful indicator historical responsibility proved the radiative forcing due to current concentrations integrated from today over a finite period into the future. Such indicator could be interpreted as a GWP for concentrations. The indicator is 'backward looking' (takes into account historical emissions), it is 'backward discounting' (early emissions weigh less depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and 'forward looking' (future effects of the emissions are considered) and it is comparable for all gases. The choice of the start date, from when historical emissions are accounted, is a political one.
机译：在本文中，讨论和评估了描述气候变化责任的几个指标。在《京都议定书》的谈判中，巴西代表团建议利用历史排放量对当前温度的影响。 《京都议定书》以100年全球变暖潜能值（GWP）加权的当前排放量为基础。作为一项有力的指标，历史责任证明了由于从今天开始在有限的时期内累积到未来的电流集中而产生的辐射强迫。此类指标可以解释为浓度的全球升温潜能值。该指标是“向后看”（考虑到历史排放量），它是“向后折现”（根据大气的衰减早期排放权重较小）和“向前看”（考虑排放的未来影响），可与所有气体媲美。从考虑历史排放量开始选择开始日期是一个政治上的选择。

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