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首页> 外文会议>Twentieth International Congress on Large Dams Vol.1: Question 76; Sep 19-22, 2000; Beijing, China >PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUE AS AN APPROACH TO STUDY HYDRAULIC FRACTURING MECHANISM IN EMBANKMENT DAMS
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PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUE AS AN APPROACH TO STUDY HYDRAULIC FRACTURING MECHANISM IN EMBANKMENT DAMS

机译：概率风险评估技术作为研究堤坝液压断裂机理的一种方法

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摘要

The analyses of statistical data in dam failure classification do not generally provide for subdivision of the structure into individual components which will behave in different manner under the action of external factors, e.g. load, etc.. Reliability analysis includes the use of case histories (database) and other sources of information, e.g. failure mechanisms and knowledge based on expertise or judgment. With such techniques it is possible to evaluate the safety of a dam in a logical and consistent manner using a set of concepts and procedures, such as fault trees and event trees, to study structures with many components and modes of failures such as embankment dams. The problem of cracking, leakage and internal erosion in embankment dams can be reasoned to be dependent on extreme value statistics and probability, as "safety factors" are based mainly on the uncertainties involved and on the consequences of catastrophic failure. It has been suggested that the risk of inter-alia, hydraulic fracturing and internal erosion in embankment dams may be studied using techniques such as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) which include "structural" reliability and risk analysis/elements. From a review of cases histories of loss of integrity or failure, combined with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical studies, the relative risk of hydraulic fracturing of the core of an embankment dam may be assessed by probabilistic techniques. As part of a research program by the author reliability analysis techniques have been applied to consideration of the risk of hydraulic fracturing on embankment dams.
机译：大坝破坏分类中的统计数据分析通常不提供将结构细分为单个组件的功能，这些组件在外部因素（例如外部因素）的作用下会以不同的方式表现。可靠性分析包括使用案例历史记录（数据库）和其他信息来源，例如故障机制和基于专业知识或判断力的知识。借助此类技术，可以使用一组概念和程序（如断层树和事件树）以逻辑一致的方式评估大坝的安全性，以研究具有许多故障要素和模式的结构，例如堤坝。可以说，堤坝的开裂，渗漏和内部侵蚀问题取决于极值统计和概率，因为“安全因素”主要基于所涉及的不确定性和灾难性破坏的后果。已经提出，可以使用诸如包括“结构”可靠性和风险分析/要素在内的概率风险评估（PRA）等技术来研究堤坝的水力压裂和内部侵蚀等风险。通过回顾完整性或破坏损失的案例历史，结合实验室测试和理论研究的结果，可以通过概率技术评估堤坝大坝核心水力压裂的相对风险。作为作者研究计划的一部分，可靠性分析技术已应用于考虑堤坝水力压裂的风险。

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