声明
摘要
Abstract
Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
Chapter 1：Introduction
1．1 Background
1．2 Significance and Originalities of the Study
1．2．1 Significance of Study
1．2．2 Originalities of the Study
1．3 Objectives of the Study
1．3．2 Specific Objective
1．4 Research Questions
1．5 Scopes of Study
1．6 Limitations and Directions for Further Studies
Chapter 2： Literature Review
2．1 International Tourism Demand Literature
2．2 Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling
2．3 Recent Methodological Developments in Tourism Demand Modelling
2．3．1 Econometric Models
2．3．2 The Application of Consumer Demand Theory in Modelling Tourism Demand
2．3．3 Single Equation Approach in International Tourism Demand Modelling
2．3．4 System-of-Equations Approach
2．3．5 Panel Data Model
2．4 A Theoretical Framework for Tourism Demand
2．4．1 Economic Demand Theory
2．4．2 International Trade Theory
2．4．3 Theoretical Framework of the Gravity Model
2．5 Research Gaps
Chapter 3：Overview Thailand’s Tourism Industry and Development
3．1．2 International Tourism in Thailand
3．2 The Important of Tourism in Thailand
3．2．1 The Important of Domestic Tourism in Thailand
3．2．2 The Imponant of International Tourism in Thailand
3．3 History of tourism development and tourism policy in Thailand
3．4 Analysis of Comparative Advantage of Thai Tourism Compared to other Countries
3．5 SWOT Analysis of Tourism in Thailand
3．5．1 Strengths
3．5．2 Opportunities
3．5．3 Weaknesses
3．5．4 Threats
Chapter 4：Overview of Tourism Characteristics and Travel Patterns in Thailand
4．1．1 Number of International Tourists
4．1．2 International Tourism Receipts
4．1．3 Length of Stay
4．1．4 Seasonal Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
4．1．5 Spatial Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
4．2 The Dynamism of the Chinese outbound Tourism Market
4．2．1 The Evolution of Chinese outbound Market
4．2．2 Chinese Arrivals and Receipts in Thailand
4．2．3 Seasonal Distribution of Chinese Arrivals in Thailand
4．2．4 Outbound Chinese Tourism Expenditure (Consumption)
Chapter 5：Overview the Determinants of International Tourism Industry
5．1 Measurement of Demand for Tourism
5．1．1 Tourist Arrivals
5．1．2 Tourist Expenditure
5．1．3 Length of Stay
5．2 Determinants of International Tourism Demand (Explanatory Variables)
5．2．1 Income
5．2．2 Price
5．2．3 Prices of Substitute(Alternative)Destinations
5．2．4 Exchange Rate
5．2．5 Lagged Dependent Variable
5．2．6 International Trade
5．2．7 Qualitative Effects
5．3 Demand Elasticity
5．3．1 Income Elasticities／Income Effect
5．3．2 Price Elasticities
Chapter 6：Research Methodology and Method
6．1 Model Construction
6．2 Functional Forms
6．3 Model Selection
6．4 Econometric Methods
6．5 Estimation Procedure
6．6 Data Sources
6．7 Variable Selection
6．7．1 Dependent Variables
6．7．2 Explanatory Variables
6．8 Diagnostic Checking
6．8．1 Multicollinearity Test
6．8．2 Model Selection(Fixed-Effects or Random-Effects Model)
6．8．5 Testing Over-Identifying Restrictions in GMM
Chapter 7：Empirical Analysis and Results
7．1 Diagnostic Test Results
7．1．3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity
7．2 Empirical Results
Chapter 8：Conclusion and Recommendations
8．1 Research Conclusions
8．2 Recommendations for the Chinese Market
8．3 Recommendations for Thailand
References
Appendix
Acknowledgement
Author’s Currculum Vitae
对外经济贸易大学;
