声明
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
致谢
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.0 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
1.1 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
1.2 OBJECTIVES
1.3 METHODOLOGY
1.4 JUSTIFICA TION
1.5 STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH
1.5 LIMITATIONS
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0 INTORDUCTION
2.1 THEORIES ON INFLATON AND ITS EFFECT
2.2 MATHEMATICAL APPLICATION
2.3 CONCLUSION
CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY
3.0 INTRODUCTION
3.1 BASIC CONCEPTS ON TIME SERIES
3.2 STATIONARY AND NON-STATINARY TIME SERIES
3.3 ARIMA MODEL
3.4 PRINCIPLES OF ARIMA MODELLING (BOX-JENKINS 1976)
3.5 CONCLUSION
CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 ANALYSISING DATA AND RESULTS DISCUSSION OF THE STUDY
4.2 PRELIMINARY DATA ANALYSIS
4.2 MODEL FITTING
4.3 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC
4.4 EVALUATING THE ACCURACY OF THE FORECAST
4.5 INFLATION MODEL FOR THE PERIOD OF 1990 TO 2000
4. 6 INFLATION MODEL FOR THE PERIOD OF 2001 TO 2009
4. 7 COMPARING INFLATION RATES BETWEEN THE THREE PERIODS (1990-2000 AND 2001-2009)
4.8 CONCLUSION
5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
5.3 RECOMMENDATION
5.4CONCLUSION
参考文献
APPENDIX ONE
APPENDIX TWO
APPENDIX THREE
APPENDIX FOUR
APPENDIX FIVE
APPENDIX SIX
APPENDIX SEVEN
APPENDIX EIGHT
APPENDIX NINE
