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Fire risk assessment of the western portion of the Central Hardwoods forest region.

机译：中部硬木森林地区西部的火灾风险评估。

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摘要

This study examined how fire risk, a combination of fuels conditions and fire probabilities, varied across a large portion of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Case studies were conducted to evaluate the fuel loading variability in Missouri Ozark forests, determine the temporal variability in fuel accumulation rates, and quantify the role of topographic roughness in fire regimes. Using knowledge gained from these case studies two regional scale studies were conducted describing 1) variability in fuel loading and hazard and, 2) fire probabilities. For the fuel hazard study a stepwise multiple linear regression model (r² = 0.36) predicted litter depth from five parameters: residence time (number of months since leaf fall (November)), topographic roughness index, elevation, precipitation, and slope exposure. Model estimates of litter depth were weighted with litter moisture content to produce maps of litter hazard index. Maps displayed spatial changes in litter hazard for different drought conditions. Overall, litter hazard appeared to be relatively homogeneous throughout the study area with greatest levels attained in southeastern Missouri. Month of year and drought condition are likely the most important parameters concerning fuel hazard. For the fire probability study a large set of fire occurrence records (> 12,000) for the period 1986 to 2008 were used to develop a predictive model of fire probability. CART and logistic regression analysis were used to identify variables related to ignition frequency and to model the spatial variability in fire occurrence probabilities. Eight model parameters were used in a predictive model that showed fire probabilities to be substantially greater in the southern Ozark Highlands compared to the northern Ozarks and most of Illinois and Indiana. Finally, fire probabilities were combined with fuel hazard indices to generate fire risk indices. Fire risk pertained to the risk of forests burning and indices were designed so that increased fire frequency (i.e., fire probabilities) and severities (i.e., fuel hazard) represented increased fire risk. Fire risk indices closely resembled fire probabilities and gave increased weights to both exposed slopes and increased drought conditions. Areas of highest fire risk were identified as being primarily located on Mark Twain National Forest lands. The model appears to have captured much of the variability observed in the modern fire locations, however likely did not characterize the variability associated with known cultural patterns related to fires.
机译：这项研究调查了密苏里州，伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州大部分地区的火灾风险，燃料状况和火灾概率的组合如何变化。进行了案例研究，以评估密苏里州奥扎克（Mozouri Ozark）森林的燃料装载量变异性，确定燃料累积速率的时间变异性，并量化地形粗糙度在火情中的作用。利用从这些案例研究中获得的知识，进行了两个区域规模的研究，这些研究描述了1）燃料负载和危害的可变性，以及2）着火概率。对于燃料危害研究，逐步多元线性回归模型（r²= 0.36）可通过以下五个参数预测垫料深度：停留时间（自落叶（月份）以来的月数（11月）），地形粗糙度指数，海拔，降水和坡度。将垫料深度的模型估计值与垫料含水量进行加权，以生成垫料危害指数图。地图显示了不同干旱条件下凋落物危害的空间变化。总体而言，整个研究区的垃圾危险似乎相对均匀，在密苏里州东南部达到最高水平。一年中的月份和干旱状况可能是有关燃料危害的最重要参数。对于火灾概率研究，使用了1986年至2008年期间的大量火灾记录（> 12,000）来建立火灾概率的预测模型。使用CART和逻辑回归分析来确定与点火频率有关的变量，并对火灾发生概率的空间变异性进行建模。在预测模型中使用了八个模型参数，该模型参数表明，与北部奥扎克人以及伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州的大多数地区相比，奥扎克高原南部的火灾概率要大得多。最后，将火灾概率与燃料危害指数相结合，以产生火灾风险指数。火灾风险与森林燃烧的风险有关，因此设计指标时，增加火灾频率（即火灾概率）和严重性（即燃料危害）表示火灾风险增加。火灾风险指数与火灾概率极为相似，并增加了暴露坡度和干旱条件的权重。火灾风险最高的地区被确定为主要位于马克吐温国家森林地区。该模型似乎捕获了在现代火灾场所观察到的许多可变性，但是可能无法表征与火灾相关的已知文化模式相关的可变性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Stambaugh, Michael C.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Missouri - Columbia.;

  • 授予单位 University of Missouri - Columbia.;
  • 学科 Agriculture Forestry and Wildlife.;Natural Resource Management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 190 p.
  • 总页数 190
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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