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Scenario development for water resources decision-making.

机译：水资源决策的方案制定。

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With ever-increasing pressures on limited water supplies in arid regions, water managers are forced to make critical decisions about the management of water resources---sometimes under considerable uncertainty. Given the large number of stresses on existing water systems, proper management requires the consideration of all different factors that may contribute to water use and consumption. As water management becomes more focused on the issue of sustainability, processes traditionally thought of as non-water-related and irrelevant to water management are now becoming very pertinent. In particular, the consequences of changes in climate, population, land use, and various types of water usage (agricultural, environmental, domestic, and urban) are of considerable interest.;With increasing uncertainty about the future, conventional methods of decision-analysis are increasingly unable to suitably quantify the future impacts of policy decisions, and they are also unable to provide a clear contrast between impacts of historical policy decisions and possible future management decisions. An analytical approach that is sensitive to qualitative effects of water-related decision-making will therefore be more useful towards improving management practices. Scenario development is one such tool that can be used to examine future implications of water management, and thereby shed light on the potential consequences of implementing different operational and institutional policies. The objective of this work is to propose a formal scenario development methodology applicable to water resources management issues. This framework is applied and evaluated on a regional scale for the U.S. southwest and on a local scale for the state of Arizona.;The research presented here is comprised of several components; (i) a review of existing literature on scenarios, scenario studies, and scenario applications; (ii) a retrospective analysis of water management-related scenario applications that examines the implications of scenario-influenced strategies previously implemented in Arizona, (iii) the adoption of a formal scenario development approach for water resource issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., utilizing an example application in the Upper San Pedro Basin in southern Arizona, and (iv) a comprehensive application of the scenario development process to the Verde River Watershed in northern Arizona through a simplified small-scale scenario case study approach.
机译：随着干旱地区有限的供水压力不断增加，水管理者被迫做出有关水资源管理的关键决定，有时甚至存在很大的不确定性。鉴于现有水系统承受着巨大压力，因此适当的管理需要考虑所有可能导致用水和消耗的因素。随着水管理越来越关注可持续性问题，传统上认为与水无关和与水管理无关的过程现在变得非常相关。特别是，气候，人口，土地利用和各种用水类型（农业，环境，生活用水和城市用水）变化的后果引起了人们极大的兴趣。随着对未来的不确定性增加，传统的决策分析方法越来越无法适当地量化政策决策的未来影响，也无法在历史政策决策的影响与可能的未来管理决策之间提供清晰的对比。因此，对与水有关的决策的质量影响敏感的分析方法将对改进管理实践更加有用。方案拟订就是这样一种工具，可用于审查水管理的未来影响，从而阐明实施不同的业务和体制政策的潜在后果。这项工作的目的是提出一种适用于水资源管理问题的正式方案开发方法。在美国西南部的区域规模和亚利桑那州的局部规模中应用和评估了此框架。 （i）审查有关情景，情景研究和情景应用的现有文献； （ii）对与水管理相关的情景应用程序进行回顾性分析，以检查先前在亚利桑那州实施的情景影响策略的影响；（iii）对干旱和半干旱地区的水资源问题采用正式的情景开发方法以美国亚利桑那州为例，利用亚利桑那州南部圣佩德罗盆地上层的实例应用，以及（iv）通过简化的小型方案案例研究方法将方案开发过程全面应用到亚利桑那州北部的Verde河流域。

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