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Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets.

机译:在放松管制的市场中对电力和电力衍生产品定价的论文。

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摘要

This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to wholesale electricity prices. It is well known that electricity prices exhibit both cyclicity and high volatility which varies through time. Results indicate that heterogeneity in unconditional variance---which is not detected by classical unit root tests---may contribute to the appearance of non-stationarity.
机译:本文由四篇有关批发电价及其衍生品行为的论文组成。第一篇文章提供了一个经验模型,该模型考虑了电力市场上输电网络的空间特征。输电网的空间结构在确定电价方面起着关键作用,但尚未纳入先前的经验模型中。本文中的计量经济学模型将输电系统的简单表示形式整合到电价的空间面板数据模型中,并考虑了动态输电系统约束对电力市场整合的影响。使用PJM数据的经验结果证实了电价中存在空间格局,并表明随着输电线路变得更加拥挤,空间相关性逐渐降低。第二篇文章发展并凭经验检验了天然气存储库存对电力远期溢价的影响模型。我将储气约束对电价分配较高时刻的影响的模型与那些时刻对远期溢价的影响的模型链接在一起。使用PJM数据的经验结果支持该模型的预测,即当电力需求高而对天然气的空间供暖需求低时,储气库存货将大大降低电力远期溢价。第三篇文章探讨了PJM电力市场的效率。如果价格能够反映所有相关信息,那么市场就是有效的,因此价格会随机走动。随机游走的假设使用经验测试进行检验,包括Portmanteau,Augmented Dickey-Fuller,KPSS和多重方差比测试。尽管找到了某种程度的市场效率的证据,但结果却好坏参半。最后一篇文章调查了以前的研究人员基于经典单位根检验错误地应用于批发电价而得出虚假结论的可能性。众所周知,电价表现出周期性和高波动性,并随时间变化。结果表明,无条件方差中的异质性(经典单位根检验未检测到)可能会导致非平稳性的出现。

著录项

  • 作者

    Popova, Julia.;

  • 作者单位

    West Virginia University.;

  • 授予单位 West Virginia University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Finance.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 115 p.
  • 总页数 115
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;能源与动力工程;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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