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An evolving-requirements technology assessment process for advanced propulsion concepts.

机译：先进推进概念的不断发展的需求技术评估过程。

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摘要

The following dissertation investigates the development of a methodology suitable for the evaluation of advanced propulsion concepts. At early stages of development, both the future performance of these concepts and their requirements are highly uncertain, making it difficult to forecast their future value. Developing advanced propulsion concepts requires a huge investment of resources. The methodology was developed to enhance the decision-makers understanding of the concepts, so that they could mitigate the risks associated with developing such concepts.; A systematic methodology to identify potential advanced propulsion concepts and assess their robustness is necessary to reduce the risk of developing advanced propulsion concepts. Existing advanced design methodologies have evaluated the robustness of technologies or concepts to variations in requirements, but they are not suitable to evaluate a large number of dissimilar concepts. Variations in requirements have been shown to impact the development of advanced propulsion concepts, and any method designed to evaluate these concepts must incorporate the possible variations of the requirements into the assessment. In order to do so, a methodology was formulated to be capable of accounting for two aspects of the problem. First, it had to systemically identify a probabilistic distribution for the future requirements. Such a distribution would allow decision-makers to quantify the uncertainty introduced by variations in requirements. Second, the methodology must be able to assess the robustness of the propulsion concepts as a function of that distribution.; This dissertation describes in depth these enabling elements and proceeds to synthesize them into a new method, the Evolving Requirements Technology Assessment (ERTA). As a proof of concept, the ERTA method was used to evaluate and compare advanced propulsion systems that will be capable of powering a hurricane tracking, High Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The use of the ERTA methodology to assess HALE UAV propulsion concepts demonstrated that potential variations in requirements do significantly impact the assessment and selection of propulsion concepts. The proof of concept also demonstrated that traditional forecasting techniques, such as the cross impact analysis, could be used to forecast the requirements for advanced propulsion concepts probabilistically. "Fitness", a measure of relative goodness, was used to evaluate the concepts. Finally, stochastic optimizations were used to evaluate the propulsion concepts across the range of requirement sets that were considered.
机译：以下论文研究了适用于高级推进概念评估的方法学的发展。在开发的早期阶段，这些概念的未来性能及其要求都非常不确定，因此很难预测它们的未来价值。发展先进的推进概念需要大量的资源投资。开发该方法是为了增强决策者对概念的理解，以便他们可以减轻与开发此类概念相关的风险。需要一种系统的方法来识别潜在的高级推进概念并评估其稳健性，以减少开发高级推进概念的风险。现有的高级设计方法论已经评估了技术或概念对需求变化的鲁棒性，但是它们不适合评估大量不同的概念。需求的变化已经显示出会影响高级推进概念的发展，并且任何旨在评估这些概念的方法都必须将需求的可能变化纳入评估中。为了做到这一点，制定了一种方法，能够解决该问题的两个方面。首先，它必须系统地确定未来需求的概率分布。这种分布将使决策者能够量化需求变化带来的不确定性。其次，该方法论必须能够根据该分布评估推进概念的鲁棒性。本文深入地描述了这些使能要素，并将其综合成一种新的方法，即“不断发展的需求技术评估”（ERTA）。作为概念的证明，ERTA方法用于评估和比较先进的推进系统，该系统将能够为飓风跟踪，高海拔，长寿命（HALE）无人机（UAV）提供动力。使用ERTA方法来评估HALE无人机推进概念表明，需求的潜在变化确实会严重影响推进概念的评估和选择。概念证明还表明，传统的预测技术（例如交叉影响分析）可用于概率性地预测高级推进概念的需求。 “相对健康度”（一种相对良好程度的度量）用于评估概念。最后，随机优化用于评估所考虑的需求集范围内的推进概念。

著录项

  • 作者

    McClure, Erin Kathleen.;

  • 作者单位

    Georgia Institute of Technology.;

  • 授予单位 Georgia Institute of Technology.;
  • 学科 Engineering Aerospace.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 240 p.
  • 总页数 240
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 航空、航天技术的研究与探索;
  • 关键词

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