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Fiscal policy, default and emerging market business cycles .

机译:财政政策,违约和新兴市场商业周期。

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摘要

Developing country fiscal policy outcomes documented in data point to stark differences compared with developed ones. Most prominent difference is the excessive volatility of government consumption and transfer payments and their positive correlation relative to output. This seemingly non-optimal behavior is puzzling since it is in contrast with standard theory prescriptions and likely to contribute to aggregate volatility. To study the possible roots of this I build a model by incorporating a detailed explicit fiscal sector to what is otherwise a standard sovereign default setup. The environment I define is one of incomplete markets that resembles small open developing economies with respect to existence of short-maturity non-state contingent defaultable debt as the only tradable asset for the sovereign government and financial frictions on private sector. I use this model to identify the contribution of market incompleteness due to the commitment problem of the sovereign. The findings point that the endogenous state-contingent borrowing constraints that sovereigns face as a result of commitment problem in debt repayment is a major factor in accounting for the pro-cyclicality of transfer payments and excessive relative volatility of transfers and government consumption in these countries. The effect of financial frictions of the type defined as working capital constraint on an imported input combined with debt sensitive private borrowing cost is increased volatility of fiscal policy due to debt loosing its buffer-stock property in smoothing out shocks to fiscal revenues.
机译:数据中记载的发展中国家财政政策成果与发达国家相比有着明显的差异。最显着的差异是政府消费和转移支付的过度波动及其相对于产出的正相关性。这种看似非最佳的行为令人费解,因为它与标准理论规定相反,并可能导致总体波动。为了研究这种情况的可能根源,我通过将详细的明确财政部门纳入标准主权违约设置中来构建模型。我所定义的环境是不完整的市场之一,类似于短期开放的非国家或有或有违约债务的存在,是小型开放的发展中经济体,这是主权政府和私人部门财政摩擦的唯一可交易资产。我使用这种模型来确定由于主权问题引起的市场不完整的贡献。研究结果指出,主权国家由于偿还债务问题而面临的内生性或有条件的借款约束,是解释这些国家转移支付的顺周期性以及转移和政府消费的过度相对波动的一个主要因素。定义为营运资金约束的金融摩擦对进口投入的影响,加上对债务敏感的私人借贷成本,是由于债务失去了其缓冲库存的财产,从而消除了对财政收入的冲击,从而加剧了财政政策的波动性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Parmaksiz, Omer K.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Pennsylvania.;

  • 授予单位 University of Pennsylvania.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 102 p.
  • 总页数 102
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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