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An empirical identification of an appropriate inflation definition and an inflation-targeting monetary policy.

机译：对适当的通胀定义和以通胀为目标的货币政策的经验识别。

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An inflation targeting monetary policy attempts to maintain inflation within a small range or at an explicit target, thus the vehicle used to measure inflation in this type regime needs to be accurate for policymakers to effectively control inflation. The purpose of this study was to test the accuracy of the current United States inflation estimate, which is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), versus a new model for inflation estimation, the Elliott True Inflation Index (ETII). A quantitative statistical analysis was applied to examine if changes in inflation measured by the ETII differ from inflation measured by the CPI. The ETII couples external inflation estimates with the actual percentage of consumer spending from GDP measures and provides a new measurement vehicle for measuring inflation, thus eliminating much of the seasonal, substitution, and other arbitrary bias inherent in the construct of the CPI. The results of this study show that current inflation estimates, measured by the CPI, are understated compared to United States consumer consumption patterns; therefore, utilizing the ETII in establishing policy could have wide-ranging implications. Since inflation forecasts are at the root of so many public policy issues, a more accurate measurement vehicle for inflation could have acceptance globally and give more credibility to governments and central banks, which is crucial to the longevity of these democratic institutions. The ETII could be used as the measurement vehicle that an inflation-targeting monetary regime is based upon, favorably affecting people's real purchasing power and welfare.

机译：针对通货膨胀的货币政策试图将通货膨胀维持在一个小范围内或一个明确的目标上，因此，在这种类型的制度中用于衡量通货膨胀的工具必须准确，政策制定者才能有效地控制通货膨胀。这项研究的目的是测试基于消费者物价指数（CPI）的当前美国通货膨胀估计值与新的通货膨胀估计模型Elliott真实通货膨胀指数（ETII）的准确性。进行了定量统计分析，以检查ETII衡量的通货膨胀变化与CPI衡量的通货膨胀是否不同。 ETII将外部通货膨胀估计值与GDP指标中消费者支出的实际百分比结合在一起，并提供了一种新的衡量通货膨胀的衡量工具，从而消除了CPI结构固有的许多季节性，替代性和其他任意偏差。这项研究的结果表明，与美国消费者的消费模式相比，以CPI衡量的当前通货膨胀估计数被低估了。因此，利用ETII制定政策可能会产生广泛的影响。由于通货膨胀预测是许多公共政策问题的根源，因此，更准确的通货膨胀衡量工具可以在全球范围内被接受，并为政府和中央银行提供更高的信誉，这对于这些民主机构的长寿至关重要。 ETII可以用作基于通胀目标的货币制度的衡量工具，对人们的实际购买力和福利产生有利影响。

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作者
Elliott, Kirk.;
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作者单位

Walden University.;

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授予单位 Walden University.;
学科 Economics General.; Political Science Public Administration.
学位 Ph.D.
年度 2007
页码 184 p.
总页数 184
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类经济学;政治理论;
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机译：在本文中，我们分析了DsGE新凯恩斯主义模型，该模型具有明显的劳动力，其中企业可能属于两个不同的最终产品生产部门，其中工资和就业是在竞争性劳动力市场中确定的，而工资和就业是由工资和就业导致的。工会和公司之间的合同过程。企业和垄断联盟之间的讨价还价意味着模型中的实际工资刚性，反过来，产出稳定和通货膨胀稳定之间的内生权衡。我们表明，生产率冲击对通货膨胀的负面影响以及成本推动冲击的积极影响，主要取决于属于竞争部门的企业比例。这个数字越大，这些效果越小。我们得出一个基于福利的目标函数作为经济代理人的预期效用的二阶泰勒近似，我们分析最优货币政策。我们表明，属于竞争性行业的企业数量越大，名义利率对外生生产率和成本推动冲击的反应就越小。但是，如果我们考虑利率必须对通胀预期作出反应的工具规则，则该规则不受劳动力市场结构的影响。该模型的结果与宏观经济学中众所周知的经验规律一致，即就业波动率大于实际工资波动率。

An empirical identification of an appropriate inflation definition and an inflation-targeting monetary policy.

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