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A risk- and fuzzy set-based methodology for advanced concept technology demonstration military utility assessment design.

机译：一种基于风险和模糊集的方法，用于先进概念技术示范军事效用评估设计。

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摘要

The U.S. Department of Defense Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) and derivative, rapid acquisition programs offer timely solutions to critical military needs by assessing the utility of technologies mature enough to be fielded without application of traditional, defense system development processes. Military utility assessments (MUA) are ACTDs' most critical features, but the lack of a standard for identifying assessment criteria tailored to specific demonstrations risks poorly informed acquisition decisions and the military operations those decisions are intended to support.; The purpose of this research was to develop and deploy a methodology for identifying measures of effectiveness integral to advanced concept technology demonstration military utility assessment design. Within a context determined by attributes of complex systems, the research observed twin premises that ACTD assessment designs should accommodate: all risks possible when incorporating demonstration prototypes within superior and complex, joint military operations metasystems; and the ambiguities and other of what have been termed "fuzzy" manifestations of the cognition and language with which end-user, military operators craft and express perspectives required to identify measures of effectiveness fundamental to MUA designs. The effort pursued three research questions: (1) How might joint military operations metasystem models guide the identification of ACTD measures of effectiveness? (2) How might be developed and employed joint military metasystem models with which can be identified ACTD measures of effectiveness? (3) How useful might ACTD managers and analysts find the MUA design methodology developed and deployed with this research?; The deployed methodology stimulated answers to these research questions by uniquely combining tailored versions of established risk assessment methods with a fuzzy method for resolving small group preferences. The risk assessment methods honored one research premise while enabling the identification and employment of a joint military operations metasystem model suited to MUA design needs of a simulated ACTD. The fuzzy preference method honored the second research premise as it, too, promoted metasystem model employment. The complete methodology was shown to hold favor with a large segment of a community expert in managing and assessing the utility of ACTDs emphasizing critical, joint military service needs.
机译：美国国防部先进概念技术示范（ACTD）及其衍生快速采购计划通过评估足够成熟的技术实用性来评估关键军事需求，从而及时解决这些问题，而无需应用传统的防御系统开发流程即可进行部署。军事设施评估（ACA）是ACTD的最关键特征，但是缺乏确定针对特定示威量身定制的评估标准的标准，这可能会导致采购决策知情，而这些决策旨在支持军事行动。这项研究的目的是开发和部署一种方法，用于识别先进概念技术示范军事效用评估设计必不可少的有效性度量。在由复杂系统的属性决定的背景下，研究观察到ACTD评估设计应适应的双重前提：将示范原型纳入高级和复杂的联合军事行动元系统中时可能存在的所有风险；以及最终用户，军事操作人员根据认知和语言的模糊性和其他形式（所谓的“模糊”表现）来制定和表达所需的观点，以识别MUA设计基础的有效性指标。这项工作追求了三个研究问题：（1）联合军事行动元系统模型如何指导ACTD有效性度量的确定？ （2）如何开发和采用联合军事元系统模型，以识别ACTD的有效性？ （3）ACTD的管理者和分析师可能会发现本研究开发和部署的MUA设计方法有多有用？通过将既定的风险评估方法的量身定制的版本与用于解决小组偏好的模糊方法独特地结合起来，所部署的方法激发了这些研究问题的答案。风险评估方法尊重一个研究前提，同时能够识别和使用适合模拟ACTD设计的MUA设计需求的联合军事作战元系统模型。模糊偏爱方法也促进了第二研究前提，因为它也促进了元系统模型的应用。事实证明，完整的方法论得到社区专家的很大一部分的青睐，他们在管理和评估ACTD的效用时强调了关键的联合军事需求。

著录项

  • 作者

    Meyers, Thomas James.;

  • 作者单位

    Old Dominion University.;

  • 授予单位 Old Dominion University.;
  • 学科 Engineering System Science.; Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 185 p.
  • 总页数 185
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 系统科学;运筹学;
  • 关键词

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