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Evaluating the Impact of Depressed Housing Prices on Property Tax Revenue in Florida.

机译：评估住房价格下跌对佛罗里达州物业税收入的影响。

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摘要

While economic models were effective in forecasting Florida property tax revenue from 1950 through 1997, the models have become unreliable since the current housing boom and decline cycle started in 1998. As a result of the ineffective models, Florida Department of Revenue (DOR) property tax revenue forecasts have been higher than actual property tax revenue in 2008 through 2012. The inaccurate property tax revenue forecasts resulted in severe mid-year county budget deficits and forced drastic cost saving actions in many counties. The problem addressed in the current study was the Florida DOR property tax revenue forecasts for 2013 and 2014 were inaccurate with continued use of the traditional economic forecasting models. The quantitative correlational comparative study was designed to capture the housing decline impact on property tax revenue to create and test new economic models to more accurately forecast 2013 and 2014 Florida county property tax revenue. Regression analysis was conducted on one year's property values and the following year's property tax revenues for Florida counties for the period 2006 through 2012. F-tests were conducted at the 95% confidence level on the resultant regression equations for selected counties and all counties as a whole. The results indicated the change in one year's property value did relate to the following year's property tax revenue for 34 of the 46 counties and all counties as a whole, p ≤ .05. One-tailed t-tests conducted at the 95% confidence level indicated DOR 2014 forecasts for Nassau County (t = 5.43, p = .003) and Wakulla County (t = 6.17, p = .002) were statistically greater than the new model forecasts. The recommendations for future research are to validate the current study results by comparing the 2013 property tax revenue forecasts to actual 2013 property tax revenue, update the study 2014 property tax revenue forecasts when the data become available, and generate a forecast for 2015 property tax revenue when the data become available.
机译：尽管经济模型可以有效地预测1950年到1997年之间的佛罗里达州财产税收入，但是自从当前的房地产繁荣和衰退周期于1998年开始以来，这些模型就变得不可靠。由于模型无效，佛罗里达州收入局（DOR）财产税收入预测一直高于2008年至2012年的实际财产税收入。不准确的财产税收入预测导致严重的县中中期预算赤字，并迫使许多县采取了激进的节约成本措施。当前研究中解决的问题是，由于继续使用传统的经济预测模型，2013年和2014年的佛罗里达DOR财产税收入预测不准确。定量相关比较研究旨在捕获住房下降对财产税收入的影响，以创建和测试新的经济模型，以更准确地预测2013年和2014年佛罗里达县财产税收入。对佛罗里达州各县2006年至2012年的一年的财产价值和次年的财产税收入进行了回归分析。针对所选县和所有县的回归方程，在95％置信水平下进行了F检验。整个。结果表明，一年的财产价值的变化确实与46个县中的34个县以及整个县的第二年的财产税收入有关，p≤.05。在95％置信水平下进行的单尾t检验表明，拿骚县（t = 5.43，p = .003）和瓦库拉县（t = 6.17，p = .002）的DOR 2014预测值在统计学上大于新模型。预测。未来研究的建议是通过将2013年财产税收入预测与2013年实际财产税收入进行比较来验证当前的研究结果，在数据可用时更新研究2014年财产税收入预测，并生成2015年财产税收入预测当数据可用时。

著录项

  • 作者

    Johnson, William C.;

  • 作者单位

    Northcentral University.;

  • 授予单位 Northcentral University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.
  • 学位 D.B.A.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 136 p.
  • 总页数 136
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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