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Population Dynamics, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: The Consequence of One-Child Policy in China.

机译:人口动态,人力资本与经济增长:中国独生子女政策的后果。

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摘要

The first chapter demonstrates that the fertility restrictions due to one-child policy effectively promote human capital accumulation and the faster human capital creation help accelerate economic growth in China. Since 1980 when the policy enacted, it suppresses population growth and induces a large shift of population age structure during demographic transition from high to low fertility society. To quantitatively identify these effects, I develop a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generation model with endogenous fertility, human capital accumulation and intergenerational transfers. I calibrated and solved the model for Chinese economy since 1950 with dynamic programming algorithm. Simulations imply that exogenous fertility restrictions imposed by one-child policy largely increase expected years of schooling during policy periods, and produce generations of "high-quality'' population. After decades the policy enacted, each "high-quality'' worker produces more GDP per year, compared with one living in non-policy regime. Simulations also suggest that for the economy in policy regime, it achieves a sustainable lower population growth rates. For a considerable length of time, the share of old-age population is much larger and the share of young-age population is much small. As result, society will face a severe labour force shortage in near feature.;The second chapter demonstrates that the school efficiency deducted from the theory is highly consistent with data. I construct model school efficiency and data school efficiency, and detect their relationship with least squares and fixed effects regressions. Statistical results provide a strong evidence that the implication from the theory is highly consistent with reality.
机译:第一章证明了独生子女政策对生育的限制有效地促进了人力资本的积累,而更快的人力资本创造有助于加速中国的经济增长。自1980年政策颁布以来,该政策在人口结构从高生育率社会向低生育率社会过渡期间,抑制了人口增长,并导致人口年龄结构发生了巨大变化。为了定量确定这些影响,我建立了具有内生繁殖力,人力资本积累和代际转移的动态一般均衡重叠代模型。自1950年以来,我使用动态规划算法对模型进行了校准和求解。模拟表明,独生子女政策对生育力的限制大大增加了政策期内的预期受教育年限,并产生了几代“高质量”人口;在制定了几十年的政策之后,每位“高质量”工人产生了更多每年的国内生产总值,与生活在非政策体制中的人相比。模拟还表明,对于处于政策体制中的经济,它实现了可持续的较低人口增长率。在相当长的时间内,老年人口的比例要大得多,而年轻人口的比例要小得多。结果,社会将面临严重的劳动力短缺问题。第二章证明了从理论中推论出的学校效率与数据高度吻合。我构建模型学校效率和数据学校效率的模型,并检测它们与最小二乘法和固定效应回归之间的关系。统计结果提供了有力的证据,表明该理论的含义与现实高度一致。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li, Jing.;

  • 作者单位

    Clemson University.;

  • 授予单位 Clemson University.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Asian studies.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 93 p.
  • 总页数 93
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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