How prepared is the U.S. Air Force to modify its aircraft fleet in upcoming years? Aircraft modernization is a complex interaction of new and legacy aircraft, organizational structure, and planning policy. This research will take one component of modernization: aircraft modification, and apply a new method of analysis in order to help formulate policy to promote modernization. Departing from previous small-sample studies dependent upon weight as a chief explanatory variable, this dissertation incorporates a comprehensive dataset that was constructed for this research of all aircraft modifications from 1996 through 2005. With over 700 modification programs, this dataset is used to examine changes to the current modification policy using policy-response regression models. These changes include separating a codependent procurement and installation schedule, reducing the documentation requirements for safety modifications, and budgeting for aging aircraft modifications. The research then concludes with predictive models for the F-15 and F-16 along with their replacements: the F-22 and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
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