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A Systems Thinking Approach to Cost Growth in DoD Weapon Systems.

机译：国防部武器系统中成本增长的系统思考方法。

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摘要

The cost of Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems acquisitions has risen at an alarming rate of 46% since the 1960s, according to third-party investigations. Despite considerable DoD efforts to reduce cost growth, historical review demonstrates a pattern of underestimation of weapon systems cost. The research presented here highlights the human influence on acquiring, sustaining, and managing weapon systems, as it relates to cost growth. The DoD has recently identified most weapon systems as systems of systems, thus a systems thinking approach to Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems cost growth is ideal, as it breaks away from traditional reverse-engineering and reductionism approaches and integrates quantitative and qualitative data.;The methods of research employed here include analysis of numerical data, statistical findings by research and development groups, review of DoD Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs), and simulation of the adaptive learning process of producing estimates for two weapons systems programs (the F/A-18E/F and F/A-22 fighter jets), using the TREND function. I argue that the improved cost estimates resulting from the systems thinking approach presented here should be implemented in support of existing cost estimating tools, because this approach takes into account human delays affecting the estimates, for example the time lags inherent to data collection or to changes in perception of the system. To test the usability and feasibility of the approach, the results of the TREND function were compared retroactively against cost estimates from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) on the two selected DoD weapon systems programs. A systems thinking approach to cost growth as an emergent behavior of the DoD weapon systems acquisitions process provides decision makers at various levels of authority with a more holistic understanding of cause, effect, and reaction in order to assess current and future cost trends. This research provides a foundation for such an approach.
机译：根据第三方调查，自1960年代以来，国防部（DoD）武器系统的采购成本以惊人的46％的速度增长。尽管国防部为降低成本增长做出了巨大努力，但历史回顾表明，武器系统成本被低估了。此处提出的研究突出了人类对购置，维持和管理武器系统的影响，因为这与成本增长有关。国防部最近已将大多数武器系统确定为系统系统，因此国防部（DoD）武器系统成本增长的系统思维方法是理想的，因为它摆脱了传统的逆向工程和简化论方法，并集成了定量和定性数据。;这里采用的研究方法包括：数值数据分析，研究和开发小组的统计结果，国防部选定的购置报告（SAR）的审查以及模拟自适应学习过程以生成两个武器系统程序（F / A-18E / F和F / A-22战斗机），使用趋势功能。我认为应该采用此处提出的系统思考方法来改进成本估算，以支持现有的成本估算工具，因为这种方法考虑到了影响估算的人为延迟，例如数据收集或变更固有的时滞。对系统的看法。为了测试该方法的可用性和可行性，将TREND函数的结果与两个选定的DoD武器系统程序中的选定购置报告（SAR）的成本估算进行了追溯比较。一种将成本增长作为国防部武器系统购置过程中的紧急行为的系统思考方法，可以使各级主管部门的决策者对原因，影响和反应有更全面的了解，以便评估当前和未来的成本趋势。这项研究为这种方法提供了基础。

著录项

  • 作者

    Assidmi, Luay M.;

  • 作者单位

    The George Washington University.;

  • 授予单位 The George Washington University.;
  • 学科 Engineering System Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 122 p.
  • 总页数 122
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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