• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文学位 >A guided simulation methodology for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems.
【24h】

A guided simulation methodology for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems.

机译：一种用于复杂系统动态概率风险评估的指导性仿真方法。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic process of examining how engineered systems work to ensure safety. With the growth of the size of the dynamic systems and the complexity of the interactions between hardware, software, and humans, it is extremely difficult to enumerate the risky scenarios by the traditional PRA methods. Over the past 15 years, a host of DPRA methods have been proposed to serve as supplemental tools to traditional PRA to deal with complex dynamic systems. A new dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework is proposed in this dissertation. In this framework a new exploration strategy is employed. The engineering knowledge of the system is explicitly used to guide the simulation to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy. The engineering knowledge is reflected in the "Planner" which is responsible for generating plans as a high level map to guide the simulation. A scheduler is responsible for guiding the simulation by controlling the timing and occurrence of the random events. During the simulation the possible random events are proposed to the scheduler at branch points. The scheduler decides which events are to be simulated. Scheduler would favor the events with higher values. The value of a proposed event depends on the information gain from exploring that scenario, and the importance factor of the scenario. The information gain is measured by the information entropy, and the importance factor is based on the engineering judgment. The simulation results are recorded and grouped for later studies. The planner may "learn" from the simulation results, and update the plan to guide further simulation.; SIMPRA is the software package which implements the new methodology. It provides the users with a friendly interface and a rich DPRA library to aid in the construction of the simulation model. The engineering knowledge can be input into the Planner, which would generate a plan automatically. The scheduler would guide the simulation according to the plan. The simulation generates many accident event sequences and estimates of the end state probabilities.
机译：概率风险评估（PRA）是检查工程系统如何工作以确保安全的系统过程。随着动态系统规模的增长以及硬件，软件和人之间交互的复杂性，通过传统的PRA方法来枚举风险场景非常困难。在过去的15年中，已经提出了许多DPRA方法，以作为传统PRA的补充工具来处理复杂的动态系统。本文提出了一种新的动态概率风险评估框架。在此框架中，采用了新的勘探策略。系统的工程知识明确用于指导仿真，以实现更高的效率和准确性。工程知识反映在“计划器”中，“计划器”负责生成计划，作为指导仿真的高级地图。调度程序负责通过控制随机事件的时间和发生来指导仿真。在仿真过程中，可能的随机事件会在分支点处向调度程序提出。调度程序决定要模拟的事件。调度程序将倾向于使用具有更高值的事件。拟议事件的价值取决于从探索该场景所获得的信息，以及该场景的重要性。信息增益是通过信息熵来衡量的，重要性因子是基于工程判断的。记录模拟结果并分组以供以后研究。计划者可以从模拟结果中“学习”，并更新计划以指导进一步的模拟。 SIMPRA是实现新方法的软件包。它为用户提供了友好的界面和丰富的DPRA库，以帮助构建仿真模型。可以将工程知识输入到计划程序中，该程序将自动生成计划。调度程序将根据计划指导仿真。该模拟生成许多事故事件序列，并估计最终状态概率。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hu, Yunwei.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Engineering General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 239 p.
  • 总页数 239
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 工程基础科学;
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号