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首页> 外文学位 >Use of Empirically-Based Models to Evaluate the Potential of Energy Efficiency and Forest Carbon Sequestration for Mitigating Climate Change.
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Use of Empirically-Based Models to Evaluate the Potential of Energy Efficiency and Forest Carbon Sequestration for Mitigating Climate Change.

机译：使用基于经验的模型评估能源效率和森林固碳对缓解气候变化的潜力。

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摘要

Disagreement over the costs of actions to address climate change is a barrier to implementing effective policies. In this thesis, I focus on two particularly controversial actions: accelerating natural rates of improvement in energy efficiency and increasing carbon sequestration in forests. Analysts using what is known as the conventional bottom-up approach find that each of these actions can achieve substantial mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at low costs. The prospect of combining low-cost actions with politically feasible policies, such as subsidies and information programs, is particularly enticing for policy-makers. However, actions that appear to be cost-effective based on conventional bottom-up calculations are not necessarily widely adopted -- in the energy efficiency literature, this is referred to as the energy efficiency "gap".;There are two serious problems associated with the conventional bottom-up methodology. First, conventional bottom-up analysis ignores important aspects of human behavior and therefore does not take into account some of the real costs associated with actions. This explains to some degree the "gap" described above. Second, key feedback effects within the economy are not represented in bottom-up models. The energy efficiency "rebound effect" and the analogous phenomenon of "leakage" in forest carbon sequestration each reduce the initial effectiveness of the action in question. As a result of these deficiencies, conventional bottom-up models are likely to underestimate the cost of the actions in question and suggest inappropriate policy responses to rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.;In the three papers comprising my PhD thesis, I develop and apply new models to test the findings of the bottom-up approach. These models incorporate empirically estimated behavioral parameters and have the capability to (where necessary) take into account feedback effects within the economy. My research suggests that neither energy efficiency nor forest carbon sequestration is the "magic bullet" against climate change. Subsidy programs designed to achieve these actions -- including subsidies in the form of offsets -- would require large public expenditures, especially due to free-rider problems. To successfully meet the challenge of climate change, policy-makers must implement broad-based policies that impose a substantial financial or regulatory constraint on greenhouse gas emissions.;Keywords: bottom-up model; climate policy; energy efficiency; forest carbon sequestration; greenhouse gas; mitigation cost.
机译：在应对气候变化的行动成本上存在分歧，这是实施有效政策的障碍。在这篇论文中，我主要关注两个有争议的行动：加快自然地提高能源效率的速度和增加森林中的碳固存。使用所谓的传统的自下而上方法的分析人员发现，这些操作中的每一个都可以以低成本实现温室气体排放的显着缓解。将低成本行动与诸如补贴和信息计划之类的政治上可行的政策相结合的前景对于政策制定者尤其具有吸引力。但是，基于常规的自下而上计算得出的似乎具有成本效益的措施并不一定得到广泛采用-在能效文献中，这被称为能效“差距”。与之相关的两个严重问题是传统的自下而上的方法。首先，传统的自下而上的分析忽略了人类行为的重要方面，因此没有考虑与行动相关的一些实际成本。这在一定程度上解释了上述“差距”。其次，自下而上的模型没有体现经济中的关键反馈效应。森林碳固存中的能效“回弹效应”和类似的“渗漏”现象均降低了所采取行动的初始效力。由于这些缺陷，传统的自下而上模型可能会低估所采取行动的成本，并提出对大气中二氧化碳浓度不断上升的不当政策应对措施。；在我的博士学位论文的三篇论文中，我开发了应用新模型来测试自下而上方法的发现。这些模型结合了经验估算的行为参数，并具有（在必要时）考虑经济内部反馈效应的能力。我的研究表明，能源效率和森林固碳都不是应对气候变化的“灵丹妙药”。旨在实现这些行动的补贴计划-包括抵消形式的补贴-将需要大量公共支出，尤其是由于搭便车问题。为了成功应对气候变化的挑战，政策制定者必须实施基础广泛的政策，对温室气体排放施加实质性的财务或监管约束。气候政策；能源效率;森林碳固存；温室气体;缓解成本。

著录项

  • 作者

    Murphy, Rose Elise.;

  • 作者单位

    Simon Fraser University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 Simon Fraser University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Climate Change.;Atmospheric Sciences.;Alternative Energy.;Agriculture Forestry and Wildlife.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 171 p.
  • 总页数 171
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 能源与动力工程;
  • 关键词

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