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Mapping alternative energy paths for taiwan to reach a sustainable future: An application of the leap model.

机译：为台湾实现可持续发展的未来绘制替代能源之路：跨越模型的应用。

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摘要

Energy is the backbone of modern life which is highly related to national security, economic growth, and environmental protection. For Taiwan, a region having limited conventional energy resources but constructing economies and societies with high energy intensity, energy became the throat of national security and development. This dissertation explores energy solutions for Taiwan by constructing a sustainable and comprehensive energy planning framework (SCENE) and by simulating alternative energy pathways on the horizon to 2030. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) is used as a platform for the energy simulation. The study models three scenarios based on the E4 (energy -- environment -- economic -- equity) perspectives. Three scenarios refer to the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the government target scenario (GOV), and the renewable and efficiency scenario (REEE). The simulation results indicate that the most promising scenario for Taiwan is the REEE scenario, which aims to save 48.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of final energy consumption. It avoids USD 11.1 billion on electricity expenditure in final demand sectors. In addition, the cost of the REEE path is the lowest among all scenarios before 2020 in the electricity generation sector. In terms of global warming potential (GWP), the REEE scenario could reduce 35 percent of the GWP in the demand sectors, the lowest greenhouse gases emission in relation to all other scenarios. Based on lowest energy consumption, competitive cost, and least harm to the environment, the REEE scenario is the best option to achieve intergenerational equity. This dissertation proposes that promoting energy efficiency and utilizing renewable energy is the best strategy for Taiwan. For efficiency improvement, great energy saving potentials do exist in Taiwan so that Taiwan needs more ambitious targets, policies, and implementation mechanisms for energy efficiency enhancement to slow down and decrease total final energy demand in the long term. In terms of adopting renewable energy, this dissertation suggests increasing the proportion of renewable electricity to 30 percent by 2030, using proven and market competitive renewable technologies to harvest Taiwan's abundant renewable potential. To achieve this goal, it is crucial to construct stable funding sources and promote the transparency, longevity, and certainty of policies.
机译：能源是现代生活的基础，与国家安全，经济增长和环境保护高度相关。对于台湾来说，这个地区的常规能源资源有限，但在建设能源强度高的经济和社会方面，能源成为国家安全与发展的喉咙。本文通过建立可持续的综合能源计划框架（SCENE），并模拟到2030年的替代能源途径，探索台湾的能源解决方案。远程能源替代计划系统（LEAP）被用作能源平台模拟。该研究基于E4（能源-环境-经济-公平）观点对三种情景进行了建模。三种方案指的是常规业务方案（BAU），政府目标方案（GOV）和可再生能源效率方案（REEE）。模拟结果表明，台湾最有希望的情景是REEE情景，其目的是最终节省4870万吨油当量（Mtoe）。这样可以避免最终需求部门的电力支出111亿美元。此外，在2020年之前，REEE路径的成本在发电行业中是最低的。就全球变暖潜能值（GWP）而言，REEE情景可将需求部门的GWP减少35％，相对于所有其他情景，其温室气体排放量最低。基于最低的能耗，具有竞争力的成本以及对环境的危害最小，REEE方案是实现代际公平的最佳选择。本文提出提高能效和利用可再生能源是台湾的最佳策略。为了提高效率，台湾确实存在巨大的节能潜力，因此台湾需要更加雄心勃勃的目标，政策和实施机制来提高能效，以长期降低和减少最终最终能源需求。在采用可再生能源方面，本文建议到2030年，使用成熟的和具有市场竞争力的可再生技术，将可再生电力的比例提高到30％，以挖掘台湾丰富的可再生能源潜力。为了实现这一目标，至关重要的是要建立稳定的资金来源，并提高政策的透明度，寿命和确定性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Wei-Ming.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Delaware.;

  • 授予单位 University of Delaware.;
  • 学科 Energy.;Environmental Management.;Alternative Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 285 p.
  • 总页数 285
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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