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The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

机译：台湾能源供需的长期预测：LEAP模型的应用

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摘要

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring "business-as-usual" policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan.
机译：由于台湾缺乏自然资源，对能源进口的依赖以及国家对可持续发展的追求，对能源供求的长期预测是台湾基础研究中极为重要的课题。在本文中，我们概述了台湾的能源供需状况，并概述了其能源政策的历史演变和现状，以此作为描述远程能源替代计划系统的准备和应用的背景（LEAP）台湾能源部门的模型。台湾LEAP模型用于比较能源政策和能源行业发展的几种替代方案的未来能源需求和供应方式以及温室气体排放。提供并比较了以“一切照旧”政策，积极的能效改进政策以及台湾三个现有核电厂的按计划退役的设想方案的结果，并结合敏感性案例探讨了较低的经济增长假设的影响。结论部分解释了模型结果对台湾未来的能源和气候政策的影响。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第11期|p.6790-6803|共14页
  • 作者

    Huang Yophy; Bor Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng Chieh-Yu;

  • 作者单位

    Depmrtment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051;

    Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University. Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan;

    Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    energy forecast; energy policy; carbon emission reduction;

    机译：能源预测;能源政策;减少碳排放;

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