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Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador

机译：长期电力供需预测（2018-2040）：厄瓜多尔可持续发电系统的跨模型应用

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摘要

This research assesses the Ecuadorian power generation system, estimating the electricity supply and demand forecast until 2040. For this purpose, three potential alternative scenarios were analyzed using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System; S1: Business As Usual; S2: Power Generation Master Plan; and S3: Sustainable Power Generation System. The main goal of this study is to analyze the possible alternatives for electricity supply and demand, fuel consumption, and the future structure of the Ecuadorian power generation system to transform the current system based on petroleum fuels into a sustainable system that consumes natural gas, and progressively introduces renewable power generation plants such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric until 2040. According to the estimated results through the inclusion of sustainable energy policies, S3 scenario relative to S1 scenario could reduce the average CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 11.72%, the average production costs by 9.78%, and the average petroleum fuel consumption by 15.95%. Consequently, a correct energy transition contributes to the protection of the environment and public health and has a direct effect on economic savings for the state, which benefits to improve the citizen’s quality of life.
机译：本研究评估了厄瓜多尔发电系统，估算了电力供需预测到2040年。为此目的，使用远程能源替代计划（LEAP）系统分析了三种潜在的替代方案; S1：像往常一样的业务; S2：发电总体规划;和S3：可持续发电系统。本研究的主要目标是分析厄瓜多尔发电系统的电力供需，燃料消耗和未来结构的可能替代方案，以将基于石油燃料的电流系统转化为消耗天然气的可持续系统，以及逐步介绍可再生发电厂，如太阳能，风，生物质和水电直到2040。根据纳入可持续能源政策的估计结果，相对于S1场景的S3场景可以减少11.72的平均二氧化碳当量（CO2E）排放量％，平均生产成本9.78％，平均石油消耗量为15.95％。因此，正确的能源转变有助于保护环境和公共卫生，并直接影响国家的经济储蓄，这有利于提高市民的生活质量。

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