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Exchange rate changes and the trade balance: Is the link symmetric or asymmetric?

机译：汇率变化和贸易平衡：链接是对称还是不对称？

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摘要

This dissertation consists of three essays in international trade. The J-Curve theory suggests that after currency depreciation, the trade balance continues to deterioration till some lags emerge, and then starts to improve. My contribution is in using a non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to examine if the effects of depreciation are different than the effects of appreciation of exchange rate on the trade balance. Using the sample data from thirteen developed and developing countries I show that when aggregate trade data are used, the effects of those two are asymmetric. In response to changes in the real exchange rate, a country's trade balance could improve with respect to one trade partner and could deteriorate with respect to another trade partner. Testing the J-Curve using aggregate trade data might not capture both effects at the same time. Thus in section two of chapter four, using the non-linear ARDL model, the bilateral J-Curve phenomenon between two specific trade partners is tested. I use the bilateral trade data between the United States and its sixteen major trade partners and I find support for my claim that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. Section three of chapter four takes it one step further in a way that employs the trade data of 162 trading industries between the United States and Canada to investigate the asymmetric claim. By further disaggregating bilateral trade data my results show that in majority of the cases in my sample, the effects of depreciation are significantly different than the effects of appreciation. Due to the possible positive response of one bilateral commodity flow to the exchange rate changes and possible negative response of another flow at the same time, the commodity level trade data is considered to be able to solve any possible aggregation bias of the other types of data sets.
机译：本文由三篇国际贸易论文组成。 J曲线理论表明，在货币贬值之后，贸易平衡继续恶化，直到出现一些滞后，然后才开始改善。我的贡献在于使用非线性自回归分布滞后模型来检查贬值的影响是否不同于汇率升值对贸易差额的影响。我使用来自13个发达国家和发展中国家的样本数据表明，使用总贸易数据时，这两个国家的影响是不对称的。为响应实际汇率的变化，一国的贸易平衡可能相对于一个贸易伙伴有所改善，而对另一贸易伙伴而言则可能恶化。使用汇总交易数据测试J曲线可能无法同时捕获两种效果。因此，在第四章的第二节中，使用非线性ARDL模型，测试了两个特定贸易伙伴之间的双边J曲线现象。我使用了美国及其16个主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易数据，我发现我支持汇率变动的影响是不对称的主张。第四章的第三节以采用美国和加拿大之间的162个贸易行业的贸易数据来调查不对称索赔的方​​式更进一步。通过进一步分解双边贸易数据，我的结果表明，在我的样本中，大多数情况下，贬值的影响与升值的影响明显不同。由于一个双边商品流可能对汇率变化产生积极的反应，而另一种商品流可能同时对汇率变化产生消极的反应，因此商品水平贸易数据被认为能够解决其他类型数据的任何可能的聚合偏差。套。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fariditavana, Hadiseh.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee.;
  • 学科 Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 97 p.
  • 总页数 97
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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