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Modeling and analysis of vector-borne diseases on complex networks.

机译:在复杂网络上对媒介传播疾病的建模和分析。

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摘要

Vector-borne diseases not only cause devastating economic losses, they also significantly impact human health in terms of morbidity and mortality. From an economical and humane point of view, mitigation and control of vector-borne diseases are essential. Studying dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission is a challenging task because vector-borne diseases show complex dynamics impacted by a wide range of ecological factors. Understanding these factors is important for the development of mitigation and control strategies.;Mathematical models have been commonly used to translate assumptions concerning biological (medical, demographical, behavioral, immunological) aspects into mathematics, linking biological processes of transmission and dynamics of infection at population level. Mathematical analysis translates results back into biology. Classical deterministic epidemic models do not consider spatial variation, assuming space is homogeneous. Spatial spread of vector-borne diseases observed many times highlights the necessity of incorporating spatial dynamics into mathematical models. Heterogeneous demography, geography, and ecology in various regions may result in different epidemiological characteristics. Network approach is commonly used to study spatial evolution of communicable diseases transmitted among connected populations.;In this dissertation, the spread of vector-borne diseases in time and space, is studied to understand factors that contribute to disease evolution. Network-based models have been developed to capture different features of disease transmission in various environments. Network nodes represent geographical locations, and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings. Two competent vector populations, Aedes mosquitoes and Culex mosquitoes, and two host populations, cattle and humans were considered. The deterministic model was applied to the 2010 Rift Valley fever outbreak in three provinces of South Africa. Trends and timing of the outbreak in animals and humans were reproduced. The deterministic model with stochastic parameters was applied to hypothetical Rift Valley fever outbreak on a large network in Texas, the United States. The role of starting location and size of initial infection in Rift Valley fever virus spread were studied under various scenarios on a large-scale network.;The reproduction number, defined as the number of secondary infections produced by one infected individual in a completely susceptible population, is typically considered an epidemic threshold of determining whether a disease can persist in a population. Extinction thresholds for corresponding Continuous-time Markov chain model is used to predict whether a disease can perish in a stochastic setting.;The network level reproduction number for diseases vertically and horizontally transmitted among multiple species on heterogeneous networks was derived to predict whether a disease can invade the whole system in a deterministic setting. The complexity of computing the reproduction number is reduced because the expression of the reproduction number is the spectral radius of a matrix whose size is smaller than the original next generation matrix. The expression of the reproduction number may have a wide range of applications to many vector-borne diseases. Reproduction numbers can vary from below one to above one or from above one to below one by changing movement rates in different scenarios. The observations provide guidelines on executing movement bans in case of an epidemic.;To compute the extinction threshold, corresponding Markov chain process is approximated near disease free equilibrium. The extinction threshold for Continuous-time Markov chain model was analytically connected to the reproduction number under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results agree with analytical results without assumptions, proposing a mathematical problem of proving the existence of the relationships in general. The distance of the extinction threshold were shown to be closer to one than the reproduction number. Consistent trends of probability of extinction varying with disease parameters observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into disease mitigation, control, and elimination.
机译:媒介传播疾病不仅造成毁灭性的经济损失,而且在发病率和死亡率方面也对人类健康产生重大影响。从经济和人道的角度来看,减轻和控制媒介传播疾病至关重要。研究媒介传播疾病传播的动力学是一项艰巨的任务,因为媒介传播疾病表现出受多种生态因素影响的复杂动态。了解这些因素对于制定缓解和控制策略至关重要。数学模型通常用于将有关生物学(医学,人口统计学,行为,免疫学)方面的假设转化为数学,将传播的生物过程和感染的动态联系起来水平。数学分析将结果转换回生物学。假定空间是同质的,经典的确定性流行病模型不考虑空间变化。多次观察到的媒介传播疾病的空间传播凸显了将空间动力学纳入数学模型的必要性。不同地区的人口统计,地理和生态学异质性可能导致不同的流行病学特征。网络方法通常用于研究在连通人群之间传播的传染性疾病的空间演变。;本论文研究媒介传播疾病在时间和空间上的传播,以了解导致疾病发展的因素。已经开发了基于网络的模型来捕获各种环境中疾病传播的不同特征。网络节点代表地理位置,权重代表区域配对之间的联系程度。考虑了两个有能力的媒介种群,伊蚊和库蚊,以及两个寄主种群,牛和人。确定性模型应用于南非三个省份的2010年裂谷热疫情。复制了动物和人类暴发的趋势和时间。具有随机参数的确定性模型被应用于美国得克萨斯州一个大型网络上的假想裂谷热爆发。在大型网络上的各种情况下,研究了裂谷热病毒传播中起始感染的起始位置和大小的作用。繁殖数量,定义为一个完全易感人群中一个感染者产生的继发感染数量。通常被认为是确定疾病是否可以在人群中持续存在的流行阈值。使用相应的连续时间马尔可夫链模型的灭绝阈值来预测疾病是否可以在随机环境中灭亡;推导了异质网络上多个物种之间垂直和水平传播的疾病的网络水平繁殖数,以预测疾病是否可以在确定性的环境中入侵整个系统。因为再现数的表达式是尺寸小于原始下一代矩阵的矩阵的谱半径,所以减小了计算再现数的复杂度。繁殖数量的表达可能对许多媒介传播的疾病具有广泛的应用。在不同情况下,通过更改移动速率,复制数量可以从一到一不等,或者从一到一不等。这些观察结果为在流行情况下执行运动禁令提供了指导。为了计算灭绝阈值,在无疾病平衡附近近似地计算了相应的马尔可夫链过程。在某些假设下,连续时间马尔可夫链模型的灭绝阈值与繁殖数具有解析联系。数值模拟结果与分析结果一致,没有任何假设,从而提出了一个数学问题,证明了这些关系的存在。消光阈值的距离显示为比再现次数更接近一。通过数值模拟观察到的灭绝概率随疾病参数而变化的一致趋势,为缓解,控制和消除疾病提供了新颖的见解。

著录项

  • 作者

    Xue, Ling.;

  • 作者单位

    Kansas State University.;

  • 授予单位 Kansas State University.;
  • 学科 Applied Mathematics.;Engineering Electronics and Electrical.;Health Sciences Epidemiology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 142 p.
  • 总页数 142
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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