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Individual heterogeneity in life history processes: Estimation and applications of demographic models to stage-structured arthropod populations.

机译:生活史过程中的个体异质性:人口模型在阶段结构节肢动物种群中的估计和应用。

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摘要

Life history variation is a general feature of natural populations. Most studies assume that local processes occur identically across individuals, ignoring any genetic or phenotypic variation in life history traits. In part, this is because a realistic treatment of individual heterogeneity results in very complex population models. Fitting models with individual heterogeneity to real data is further complicated by random effects in groups of the data, observations set at specific intervals, and the non-independence of data following a cohort of individuals through time. In this dissertation, I assume that individuals differ in the duration they spend in each developmental stage and also in the amount of time they live. Stage durations and survival times follow probability distributions with parameters specific to populations and stages. Parameters of these distributions may also include random effects when considering a subset of sampled populations and covariates such as temperature. In the first chapter I formulate a model and likelihood for variable development, using the time-to-event model framework. In the second chapter I use this model to ask whether field populations of herbivorous arthropods ( Tetranychus pacificus) form host-associations on different cultivars of the same host species. In the third chapter I incorporate variable development with variable survival and ongoing reproduction in a stage-structured population model. I explore the ability of the approximate Bayesian computation framework to fit such a complex model to data, evaluating posterior distributions and model performance.
机译:生活史的变化是自然种群的普遍特征。大多数研究假设局部过程在个体中相同地发生,而忽略了生活史特征的任何遗传或表型变异。部分原因是,对个体异质性的现实处理会导致非常复杂的总体模型。由于数据组中的随机效应,以特定时间间隔设置的观察结果以及随着时间推移的一组人的数据非独立性,使具有个人异质性的模型拟合到实际数据会进一步复杂化。在本文中,我假设每个人在每个发育阶段所花费的时间以及他们生存的时间是不同的。阶段持续时间和生存时间遵循概率分布,并具有特定于种群和阶段的参数。当考虑采样种群和协变量(例如温度)的子集时,这些分布的参数也可能包括随机效应。在第一章中,我使用事件发生时间模型框架为变量发展建立了模型和可能性。在第二章中,我使用这种模型来询问草食节肢动物(Tetranychus pacificus)的田间种群是否在同一寄主物种的不同品种上形成寄主关联。在第三章中,我将一个阶段结构的种群模型纳入了具有可变生存率和持续繁殖的可变发育。我探索了近似贝叶斯计算框架将这种复杂模型拟合到数据,评估后验分布和模型性能的能力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Scranton, Katherine.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Biology Ecology.;Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 65 p.
  • 总页数 65
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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