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Risking basin analysis: Procedures, methods and case studies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, and the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico.

机译：流域风险分析：阿拉斯加北极国家野生动物保护区和墨西哥墨西哥湾的程序，方法和案例研究。

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Integrated basin analysis was conducted using a state-of-the-art code developed for Excel, interfacing with the Monte Carlo risking program Crystal BallRTM with the purpose to perform a total uncertainty analysis that can be done with as many uncertain inputs as required and as many outputs of interest as needed without increasing the computer time involved. Two main examples using the code are described: the first one uses synthetic information and the second example uses real but minimal information from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) Area 1002 (undeformed area Brookian Sequence), Alaska, USA. In both examples, the code serves to identify which parameters in the input (ranging from uncertain data, uncertain thermal history, uncertain permeability, uncertain fracture coefficients for rocks, uncertain geochemistry kinetics, uncertain kerogen amounts and types per formation, through to uncertain volumetric factors) are causing the greatest contributions to the uncertainty in any of the selected outputs. Relative importance, relative contribution and relative sensitivity are examined to illustrate when individual parameters need to have their ranges of uncertainty narrowed in order to reduce the range of uncertainty of particular outputs. Relevant results from the ANWR case of study revealed that forecasts for oil available charge gave around 2.3 Bbbl; for gas the maximum charge available reached is 46 Bm3 . These ranges, in comparison with previous assessments, are quite different due to the group of variables used being influenced basically by the input data, the equation parameter and intrinsic assumptions. As part of the future research, the third section of this work describes the actual and future prospective areas for gas in the Mexican Basins. The main point here is to identify the advances and the important role of the Mexican gas industry as part of a future strategic investment opportunity.
机译：使用为Excel开发的最新代码进行盆地综合分析，并与蒙特卡洛风险程序Crystal BallRTM进行交互，目的是执行总不确定性分析，可以使用所需的尽可能多的不确定性输入进行分析。在不增加所需计算机时间的情况下，根据需要提供许多感兴趣的输出。描述了使用该代码的两个主要示例：第一个示例使用合成信息，第二个示例使用来自美国阿拉斯加的北极国家野生动物保护区（ANWR）1002区（未变形的Brookian序列）的真实但最少的信息。在这两个示例中，代码均用于识别输入中的哪些参数（范围从不确定的数据，不确定的热历史，不确定的渗透性，不确定的岩石破裂系数，不确定的地球化学动力学，不确定的干酪根数量和类型，直至不确定的体积因子）对任何选定输出的不确定性造成最大影响。考察了相对重要性，相对贡献和相对灵敏度，以说明何时需要缩小各个参数的不确定性范围，以减小特定输出的不确定性范围。 ANWR案例研究的相关结果表明，石油可用装量的预测约为2.3 Bbbl。对于天然气，可获得的最大电荷为46 Bm3。与以前的评估相比，这些范围存在很大差异，这是因为所使用的变量组基本上受输入数据，方程式参数和固有假设的影响。作为未来研究的一部分，这项工作的第三部分描述了墨西哥盆地天然气的实际和未来勘探领域。这里的重点是确定墨西哥天然气工业的进步及其重要作用，以此作为未来战略投资机会的一部分。

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