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*Verification and planning for stochastic processes with asynchronous events.

机译:*对具有异步事件的随机过程的验证和计划。

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摘要

Asynchronous stochastic systems are abundant in the real world. Examples include queuing systems, telephone exchanges, and computer networks. Yet, little attention has been given to such systems in the model checking and planning literature, at least not without making limiting and often unrealistic assumptions regarding the dynamics of the systems. The most common assumption is that of history-independence: the Markov assumption. In this thesis, we consider the problems of verification and planning for stochastic processes with asynchronous events, without relying on the Markov assumption. We establish the foundation for statistical probabilistic model checking, an approach to probabilistic model checking based on hypothesis testing and simulation. We demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art numerical solution methods for probabilistic model checking. While the verification result can be guaranteed only with some probability of error, we can set this error bound arbitrarily low (at the cost of efficiency). Our contribution in planning consists of a formalism, the generalized semi-Markov decision process (GSMDP), for planning with asynchronous stochastic events. We consider both goal directed and decision theoretic planning. In the former case, we rely on statistical model checking to verify plans, and use the simulation traces to guide plan repair. In the latter case, we present the use of phase-type distributions to approximate a GSMDP with a continuous-time MDP, which can then be solved using existing techniques. We demonstrate that the introduction of phases permits us to take history into account when making action choices, and this can result in policies of higher quality than we would get if we ignored history dependence.
机译:异步随机系统在现实世界中非常丰富。示例包括排队系统,电话交换机和计算机网络。然而,在模型检查和计划文献中,很少对此类系统给予关注,至少在没有对系统动力学进行限制且通常不切实际的假设的情况下。最常见的假设是历史独立性:马尔可夫假设。在本文中,我们考虑了不依赖马尔可夫假设的具有异步事件的随机过程的验证和计划问题。我们建立了统计概率模型检查的基础,这是一种基于假设检验和仿真的概率模型检查方法。我们证明了这种方法与用于概率模型检查的最新数值解决方案相比具有竞争力。虽然只能以一定的错误概率保证验证结果,但我们可以将此错误范围设置为任意低(以效率为代价)。我们在规划方面的贡献包括形式化,广义半马尔可夫决策过程(GSMDP),用于进行异步随机事件的规划。我们同时考虑目标导向和决策理论规划。在前一种情况下,我们依靠统计模型检查来验证计划,并使用模拟迹线来指导计划修复。在后一种情况下,我们介绍了使用相位类型分布来近似具有连续时间MDP的GSMDP,然后可以使用现有技术对其进行求解。我们证明,阶段的引入使我们可以在做出行动选择时考虑到历史,并且与不考虑历史依赖的情况相比,这可以导致更高质量的政策。

著录项

  • 作者

    Younes, Hakan Lorens Samir.;

  • 作者单位

    Carnegie Mellon University.;

  • 授予单位 Carnegie Mellon University.;
  • 学科 Computer science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2004
  • 页码 202 p.
  • 总页数 202
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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