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The Dynamics of Protracted Terror Campaigns: Domestic Politics, Terrorist Violence, and Counterterror Responses.

机译：持久恐怖运动的动态：国内政治，恐怖主义暴力和反恐对策。

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摘要

Existing literature does not explain why protracted terror-countertenor conflicts are sometimes characterized by escalating, tit-for-tat retaliation, but exhibit little responsive violence at other points. I argue that the expectations of local constituents and local political dynamics are primary determinants of conflict escalation and de-escalation. State and non-state constituents form expectations about the efficacy of violent and political approaches to a protracted conflict through Retrospective Projection, which combines evaluations of the past, present, and future. Demands for violence are most likely when the expected benefits of a military (militant)-based strategy exceed confidence in existing political alternatives. Demands for retaliation by local publics create incentives for state and non-state actors to use violence as a tool of Constituent Service.;I evaluate the argument with extended case studies of Northern Ireland's 'Troubles' and the Second Intifada, supplemented by four qualitative cases: Sri Lanka, Chechnya, Iraq, and Pakistan. The extended case studies combine qualitative discussion and quantitative analysis using vector autoregression (VAR) to empirically describe dynamic associations between violence and political attitudes. Consistent with the argument, constituent expectations about the efficacy of violent and political alternatives influence the timing of demands for retaliation, and demands for violence determine the timing and form of armed retaliation by state and non-state actors. Demands for violence occur where military-based strategies appear more effective than political alternatives, prior to 2002 in the Second Intifada and in the 1970s during the 'Troubles,' and retaliatory violence is most likely in these same periods. Military failures and political alternatives that weaken constituent support for violence encourage de-escalation.;Effective counterterror policies are those that shift the balance between expected military efficacy and political optimism, constraining violence by reducing demands for violence. There is a place for military-based counterterrorism, but the case studies underscore the benefits of strategies that encourage confidence in political alternatives. Law-enforcement counterterrorism and influence operations appear especially valuable because they erode support for violence and shape attitudes towards political compromise at the local level. Local political dynamics and constituent expectations must inform counterterror policy applied in regional protracted terror conflicts and used against transnational terrorist threats.
机译：现有文献没有解释为什么长期的恐怖与反叛者之间的冲突有时以不断升级的针锋相对的报复为特征，而在其他方面却很少表现出反应迅速的暴力。我认为，地方选民的期望和地方政治动态是冲突升级和升级的主要决定因素。州和非州选民对通过回顾性预测（结合了过去，现在和未来的评估）对持久冲突采取暴力和政治方法的效力形成了期望。当基于军事（军事）战略的预期收益超过对现有政治替代方案的信心时，最有可能提出暴力要求。地方公众报复的要求刺激了国家和非国家行为者使用暴力作为选民服务的工具。我以北爱尔兰的“麻烦”和第二起义的扩展案例研究评估了这一论点，并辅以四个定性案例：斯里兰卡，车臣，伊拉克和巴基斯坦。扩展案例研究结合定性讨论和定量分析，使用向量自回归（VAR）来经验描述暴力与政治态度之间的动态关联。与这一论点一致的是，对暴力和政治选择的效力的期望值会影响对报复的时机，而对暴力的要求则决定了国家和非国家行为者进行武装报复的时机和形式。在2002年之前的第二次起义中以及1970年代的“麻烦”时期，基于军事的策略似乎比政治替代方案更有效的地方出现了暴力需求，而在同一时期最有可能发生报复性暴力。军事失败和削弱民众对暴力的政治支持的政治替代手段，会促使军备升级。有效的反恐政策是那些在预期的军事效能和政治乐观主义之间取得平衡的政策，通过减少对暴力的需求来限制暴力。有一个基于军事的反恐场所，但案例研究强调了鼓励对政治替代方案充满信心的战略的好处。执法反恐和影响力行动显得特别有价值，因为它们削弱了对暴力的支持并塑造了对地方政治妥协的态度。当地的政治动态和选民的期望必须为反恐政策提供信息，该政策适用于区域旷日持久的恐怖冲突，并用于应对跨国恐怖威胁。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kavanagh, Jennifer E.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Michigan.;

  • 授予单位 University of Michigan.;
  • 学科 Political Science General.;Sociology Public and Social Welfare.;Sociology Criminology and Penology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 430 p.
  • 总页数 430
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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