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Analysis of air pollution and human health from historical and modern perspectives: Study of the public health impacts of the London 1952 smog, sensitivity analyses of ambient tropospheric ozone to precursor emissions and estimation of subsequent health

机译：从历史和现代角度分析空气污染和人类健康：研究1952年伦敦烟雾对公共健康的影响，对流层臭氧对前体排放的敏感性分析以及对随后健康的评估

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摘要

The detrimental health effects of air pollution have been recognized for centuries, yet they remain an important problem worldwide. This research investigates that relationship from historical and modern perspectives.; The first part of this dissertation investigates a historically significant air pollution episode in London in December 1952. Pollutant concentrations followed similar patterns as multiple indicators of mortality and morbidity. Only a small portion of the excess mortality in the months following the fog can be attributed to influenza, contrary to claims by initial government reports. Pollution appears to have caused approximately 12,000 excess deaths, rather than the 3,000 typically reported. Annual pollutant levels in over 150 cities worldwide were examined and found to pose a serious threat to health when compared to regulations and levels that occurred in London 1952.; The second part of this work examined tropospheric ozone, one of the most complicated air pollution problems today. Meteorological and air pollution modeling systems were used to assess ozone concentrations for three case studies covering two geographic regions and multiple emissions scenarios. Results indicate that the proposed 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard will be exceeded in more places and more often than the original 1-hour standard. More people live in areas with unhealthy ozone levels than compliance with the original requirement suggests.; Several modified emissions scenarios were used to investigate how ozone levels respond to changes in precursor emissions, with special consideration to the relative contributions of anthropogenic versus biogenic and volatile organic compound (VOC) versus nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. Results indicate that impacts are not uniformly distributed, even for a single emissions strategy. Changes in biogenic VOCs impacted ozone levels more than other emissions adjustments. The largest increases in ozone occurred in areas with high baseline pollution levels. Some regions responded more dramatically to changes in NOx. Epidemiological research was combined with model results to estimate the health effects of emissions scenarios. Considerable impacts were estimated for mortality, hospital admissions, and emergency room visits.; Significant challenges remain for air quality management, but they merit serious attention in light of the historical and contemporary evidence presented here.
机译：空气污染对健康的有害影响已有数百年的历史了，但它们仍然是世界范围内的重要问题。这项研究从历史和现代的角度研究了这种关系。本文的第一部分调查了1952年12月伦敦发生的一次具有历史意义的空气污染事件。污染物浓度遵循与死亡率和发病率的多个指标相似的模式。与最初的政府报告相反，大雾过后几个月内，仅一小部分的额外死亡率可归因于流感。污染似乎造成了大约12,000多例死亡，而不是通常报告的3,000多例。与1952年伦敦发生的法规和浓度水平相比，对全球150多个城市的年度污染物水平进行了检查，发现这些污染物对健康构成了严重威胁。这项工作的第二部分研究了对流层臭氧，这是当今最复杂的空气污染问题之一。在涉及两个地理区域和多种排放情景的三个案例研究中，使用了气象和空气污染建模系统来评估臭氧浓度。结果表明，与最初的1小时标准相比，将在更多地方，更频繁地超过提议的8小时国家环境空气质量标准。生活在臭氧水平不健康的地区的人数超过了最初要求所表明的数量。使用几种修正的排放情景来研究臭氧水平如何响应前体排放的变化，并特别考虑到人为的与生物的，挥发性有机化合物（VOC）与氮氧化物（NO x ）的相对贡献排放。结果表明，即使对于单一排放策略，影响也不是均匀分布的。生物挥发性有机化合物的变化对臭氧水平的影响大于其他排放调整。臭氧的最大增加发生在基线污染水平高的地区。一些地区对NO x 的变化反应更为剧烈。流行病学研究与模型结果相结合，以估算排放情景对健康的影响。估计会对死亡率，住院人数和急诊就诊产生相当大的影响。空气质量管理方面仍存在重大挑战，但鉴于此处介绍的历史和当代证据，这些挑战值得引起高度重视。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bell, Michelle Lee.;

  • 作者单位

    The Johns Hopkins University.;

  • 授予单位 The Johns Hopkins University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Environmental.; Health Sciences Public Health.; Environmental Sciences.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 p.4839
  • 总页数 420
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 环境污染及其防治;
  • 关键词

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