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Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming.

机译：利用环境要求和气候变暖对内华达山脉的多水库水电系统进行建模。

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摘要

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions.;This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies.;First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff.;Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project.;Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system.;While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.
机译：水力发电系统和其他河流管制经常会损害上游生态系统，部分原因是改变了生态系统历来依赖的自然流量和温度状况。这些影响在区域范围内更为复杂。由于清洁能源和本地物种的价值不断增长，以及气候变暖带来的新威胁，全球水电和生态系统的价值越来越高，因此重要的是要了解气候变暖如何影响这些系统，并找出不同用水用途之间的权衡取舍。气候条件，并找出有前途的水管理解决方案。；本研究使用传统的模拟和优化方法来探索加利福尼亚内华达山脉上西坡的这些问题。内华达山脉为加州庞大的供水系统提供大部分水，一路支持高海拔水力发电，生态系统，娱乐以及一些当地市政和农业供水。但是，预计区域气候变暖将减少融雪并将径流转移到今年初，从而影响所有用水。本文首先回顾了与本研究的广泛动机相关的重要文献，包括河流调节，淡水保护和气候变化。然后，它描述了三项实质性研究：第一，建立了一个每周时间步长的水资源管理模型，涵盖了北部的羽毛河流域到南部的克恩河流域。该模型使用水评估与计划系统（WEAP），包括水库，河道上游水电，可变水头水电，供水需求和河川流量需求。该模型与径流数据集一起应用，该径流数据集考虑了0、2、4和6°C的区域气温升高，以表示历史，近期，中期和远期（世纪末）变暖。对大多数主要水力涡轮机流量进行了很好的模拟。通常也很好地模拟了水库的存储，主要受流入水文学的准确性限制。随着温度升高6°C，整个系统的水力发电量将减少9％。水力发电的大部分减少发生在内华达山脉北部的高产流域。内华达山脉中部的年度径流量减少较少，可以更好地适应径流时间的变化。南部流域的发电量预计将减少。在全系统范围内，水库适应于捕获较早的径流，但是由于年径流量的减少，平均水库的蓄积量随着变暖而减少。;其次，使用考虑最小入流（MIF）的线性规划开发了多水库优化模型。内华达州北部尤巴河上游的每周下降坡率（DRR）。每周DRR约束用于模拟春季融雪流量，这对于内华达山脉下游的生态系统尤为重要，但由于大坝的影响，目前已缺失。通过气温升高（+0、2、4和6°C）探索MIF，DRR和水电之间的权衡。在基本情况下，平均年发电量随着温度升高2°C而略有增加，而随着温度升高6°C而略有减少。随着温度升高6°C，与基本案例操作和历史气候相比，最有利于生态的MIF和DRR减少了5.5％的水力发电，这对于重新许可水电项目具有重要意义。最后，探索了下游温度的水库管理使用线性规划模型通过选择性取水从储层中最佳释放水。目标功能是使与所需下游温度的偏差最小，该偏差是为了模仿河流中的自然温度状况而指定的。这项研究的一个目标是开发一种方法，该方法可以使用系统特征的网络表示轻松集成到流域规模的多储层优化模型中。第二个目标是探索潜在的水库用途，以维持理想的溪流温度状况，以改善气候变暖对气温的温度影响。为了进行概念验证，该模型被应用于尤巴河上游的Spaulding湖。通过有选择地撤回，该模型对冲冷水的释放以降低夏季溪流的温度，但以冬季较高的溪流温度为代价。结果还表明，选择性撤离可以减少但不能消除气候变暖的温度影响。该模型可以扩展为包括其他附近的水库，以针对高度互连的系统中的多个下游温度目标，以最佳方式管理多个水库的排放。虽然这些研究的结果有助于我们理解能源交汇处的水库管理和水电，水资源管理，生态系统和气候变暖，有很多机会可以改善这项工作。提出了改善和利用这些研究的集体效用的有希望的选择。

著录项

  • 作者

    Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 学科 Climate Change.;Water Resource Management.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 217 p.
  • 总页数 217
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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