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Multistage Stochastic Programming Models for the Portfolio Optimization of Oil Projects.

机译:石油项目组合优化的多阶段随机规划模型。

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摘要

Exploration and production (E&P;) involves the upstream activities from looking for promising reservoirs to extracting oil and selling it to downstream companies. E&P; is the most profitable business in the oil industry. However, it is also the most capital-intensive and risky. Hence, the proper assessment of E&P; projects with effective management of uncertainties is crucial to the success of any upstream business.;This dissertation is concentrated on developing portfolio optimization models to manage E&P; projects. The idea is not new, but it has been mostly restricted to the conceptual level due to the inherent complications to capture interactions among projects. We disentangle the complications by modeling the project portfolio optimization problem as multistage stochastic programs with mixed integer programming (MIP) techniques.;Due to the disparate nature of uncertainties, we separately consider explored and unexplored oil fields. We model portfolios of real options and portfolios of decision trees for the two cases, respectively. The resulting project portfolio models provide rigorous and consistent treatments to optimally balance the total rewards and the overall risk.;For explored oil fields, oil price fluctuations dominate the geologic risk. The field development process hence can be modeled and assessed as sequentially compounded options with our optimization based option pricing models. We can further model the portfolio of real options to solve the dynamic capital budgeting problem for oil projects.;For unexplored oil fields, the geologic risk plays the dominating role to determine how a field is optimally explored and developed. We can model the E&P; process as a decision tree in the form of an optimization model with MIP techniques. By applying the inventory-style budget constraints, we can pool multiple project-specific decision trees to get the multistage E&P; project portfolio optimization (MEPPO) model. The resulting large scale MILP is efficiently solved by a decomposition-based primal heuristic algorithm.;The MEPPO model requires a scenario tree to approximate the stochastic process of the geologic parameters. We apply statistical learning, Monte Carlo simulation, and scenario reduction methods to generate the scenario tree, in which prior beliefs can be progressively refined with new information.
机译:勘探和生产(E&P;)涉及上游活动,从寻找有前途的储层到开采石油并将其出售给下游公司。勘探与生产;是石油行业最赚钱的业务。但是,它也是资本密集度最高和风险最高的。因此,对E&P进行适当的评估;有效地管理不确定性的项目对于任何上游业务的成功都是至关重要的。项目。这个想法并不是什么新鲜事物,但是由于捕获项目之间交互的内在复杂性,它基本上只限于概念层面。通过使用混合整数规划(MIP)技术将项目组合优化问题建模为多阶段随机程序,可以消除复杂性。由于不确定性的不同性质,我们分别考虑了勘探和未开发的油田。对于这两种情况,我们分别为实物期权投资组合和决策树投资组合建模。由此产生的项目投资组合模型提供了严格而一致的处理方法,以最佳地平衡总回报和总体风险。对于勘探油田,油价波动主导着地质风险。因此,通过我们基于优化的期权定价模型,可以将油田开发过程建模并评估为顺序复合期权。我们可以进一步对实物期权投资组合进行建模,以解决石油项目的动态资本预算问题。对于未勘探的油田,地质风险起着决定性作用,决定着如何优化勘探和开发油田。我们可以对勘探与生产进行建模; MIP技术将其作为优化模型形式的决策树进行处理。通过应用库存样式的预算约束,我们可以合并多个特定于项目的决策树,以获得多阶段的勘探与生产;项目组合优化(MEPPO)模型。通过基于分解的原始启发式算法可以有效地解决由此产生的大规模MILP。;MEPPO模型需要情景树来近似地质参数的随机过程。我们应用统计学习,蒙特卡洛模拟和场景还原方法来生成场景树,在其中可以使用新信息逐步完善先前的信念。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Wei.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at Austin.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at Austin.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.;Economics Finance.;Operations Research.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 254 p.
  • 总页数 254
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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