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The impact of biofuel and greenhouse gas policies on land management, agricultural production, and environmental quality.

机译:生物燃料和温室气体政策对土地管理,农业生产和环境质量的影响。

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摘要

This dissertation explores the combined effects of biofuel mandates and terrestrial greenhouse gas GHG mitigation incentives on land use, management intensity, commodity markets, welfare, and the full costs of GHG abatement through conceptual and empirical modeling. First, a simple conceptual model of land allocation and management is used to illustrate how bioenergy policies and GHG mitigation incentives could influence market prices, shift the land supply between alternative uses, alter management intensity, and boost equilibrium commodity prices.;Later, a major empirical modeling section uses the U.S. Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to simulate land use and production responses to various biofuel and climate policy scenarios. Simulations are performed to assess the effects of imposing biofuel mandates in the U.S. consistent with the Renewable Fuels Standard of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (RFS2). Simulations are run for several climate mitigation policy scenarios (with varying GHG (CO2) prices and eligibility restrictions for GHG offset activities) with and without conservation land recultivation.;Important simulation outputs include time trajectories for land use, GHG emissions and mitigation, commodity prices, production, net exports, sectoral economic welfare, and shifts in management practices and intensity. Direct and indirect consequences of RFS2 and carbon policy are highlighted, including regional production shifts that can influence water consumption and nutrient use in regions already plagued by water scarcity and quality concerns. Results suggest that the potential magnitude of climate mitigation on commodity markets and exports is substantially higher than under biofuel expansion in isolation, raising concerns of international leakage and stimulating the "Food vs. Carbon" debate.;Finally, a reduced-form dynamic emissions trading model of the U.S. economy is developed using simulation output from FASOMGHG and the National Energy Modeling System to test the effect of biofuel mandate expansion and domestic offset eligibility restrictions on total economy-wide GHG abatement costs. Findings are that while the RFS2 raises the marginal costs of offsets, full abatement costs depend on a number of policy factors. GHG payment incentives for forest management and non-CO2 agricultural offsets can increase full abatement costs by more than 20%.
机译:本文通过概念模型和实证模型,探讨了生物燃料授权和陆地温室气体减排激励措施对土地利用,管理强度,商品市场,福利以及温室气体减排的全部成本的综合影响。首先,用一个简单的土地分配和管理概念模型来说明生物能源政策和温室气体减排激励措施如何影响市场价格,在替代用途之间转移土地供应,改变管理强度并提高商品均衡价格。经验建模部分使用美国森林和农业部门温室气体优化模型(FASOMGHG)来模拟土地使用和生产对各种生物燃料和气候政策情景的反应。根据2007年《能源独立与安全法》(RFS2)的《可再生燃料标准》,进行了模拟评估,以评估美国实施生物燃料指令的影响。在有和没有保护性土地耕种的情况下,针对几种气候缓解政策方案(具有变化的温室气体(CO2)价格和温室气体补偿活动的资格限制)运行模拟;重要的模拟输出包括土地使用的时间轨迹,温室气体排放和缓解,商品价格,生产,净出口,部门经济福利以及管理惯例和强度的变化。着重强调了RFS2和碳政策的直接和间接后果,包括区域生产转移可能会影响已经受到缺水和质量问题困扰的地区的用水和养分使用。结果表明,商品市场和出口的缓解气候变化的潜在幅度大大高于孤立地扩大生物燃料的幅度,这引起了国际泄漏的担忧,并引发了“粮食与碳”的辩论。最后,简化形式的动态排放交易使用FASOMGHG和国家能源建模系统的模拟输出开发了美国经济模型,以测试生物燃料授权扩展和国内抵消资格限制对整个经济范围内温室气体减排成本的影响。研究发现,虽然RFS2会增加抵消的边际成本,但全部减排成本取决于许多政策因素。用于森林管理和非CO2农业补偿的GHG支付激励措施可使全部减排成本增加20%以上。

著录项

  • 作者

    Baker, Justin Scott.;

  • 作者单位

    Texas A&M University.;

  • 授予单位 Texas A&M University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Agricultural.;Economics Environmental.;Natural Resource Management.;Land Use Planning.;Alternative Energy.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 311 p.
  • 总页数 311
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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