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Choice set formation and its implication for welfare measures in a random utility model of recreation demand.

机译：休闲需求随机效用模型中选择集的形成及其对福利措施的影响。

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摘要

The purpose of this dissertation is to study the specification of the choice set and its influence on the parameters of the utility function in a random utility model of recreation demand. In addition, the dissertation investigates the implications of the choice set specification for measuring welfare losses following beach closures. The random utility model is widely used in recreation demand modeling. It estimates the probability of visiting a site, conditional on the travel cost and the attractiveness of the site, as measured by the quantity and quality of its attributes. An index of the attractiveness of all sites in the choice set, called inclusive value, divided by the travel cost coefficient is a measure of the consumer surplus obtained from a choice situation. The random utility model is, therefore, widely used for measuring the welfare losses from closing a site or the welfare gains from quality improvements.;I employ three sets of data. The University of Delaware designed an Internet-based survey of a random sample of households from the Mid-Atlantic region. Knowledge Network of Menlo Park, CA administered the survey. The survey collected data on historical beach visitation and, separately, on visitations in the 2005 beach season. In addition, the survey asked respondents about their familiarity with seven beach regions in the Mid-Atlantic. I also collected data on travel costs and beach characteristics.;I estimate three random utility models with different specifications of the choice set based on the information about beach familiarity. A conventional random utility model estimated on the full choice set of 66 beaches serves as a baseline. Then, I fit a second conditional logit model estimated over only the set of familiar beaches. Finally, I estimate three mixed logit models with error components on the dummy variables for familiar and unfamiliar beaches. The mixed logit models differ in the level of completeness of the specification of the utility for unfamiliar beaches.;The results from the baseline model are consistent with prior expectations. High travel costs, private beaches, beaches that allow vehicle access and beaches in New Jersey reduce the probability of visitation. This probability grows with beach length and width, the availability of commercial boardwalk, an amusement park, a park within the boundaries of the beach community, as well as the status of the beach as a state park. The coefficients on developed beaches and Atlantic City are also positive. Only one coefficient, that on the variable indicating good surfing conditions, is statistically insignificant.;In the conditional logit model estimated over only the familiar beaches the implicit prices of several beach attributes fall significantly. This implies that the variables Atlantic City, length, private beach, park within, and beach width have a larger influence on choice set formation than on the utility of beachgoers. Once Atlantic City and larger beaches enter people's choice set, their effect on the probability of choice is significantly reduced.;The mixed logit models find that the utilities of familiar beaches are correlated with each other. In other words, familiar beaches are close substitutes for each other, while unfamiliar beaches are not. If a familiar beach is closed, the welfare loss will be mitigated by the presence of close substitutes.;The welfare losses from beach closure at less visited beaches tend to be driven by changes in the travel cost coefficient. A conditional logit model estimated over the full choice set will provide unbiased estimates of those losses. The tendency of losses to rise in choice set formation models relative to the baseline model, because a smaller number of substitutes are available, is not a simple function of beach familiarity, as is implied by the received literature. For example, a beach has a larger substitution effect, if a neighboring beach has a strong substitution effect.;The substitution effect increases with the scale of beach closure. When closing individual beaches, in only about a third of beaches the losses are larger in the conditional logit model estimated over only the familiar beaches relative to the baseline model. When closing whole beach regions, the welfare losses from the choice set formation models always exceed the losses from the baseline model. Therefore, when evaluating large-scale events that result in closure of a group of beaches, a simple conditional logit model estimated over the full choice set will significantly underestimate the true losses.
机译：本文的目的是研究休闲需求的随机效用模型中选择集的规格及其对效用函数参数的影响。此外，本文还研究了选择集规范对关闭海滩后的福利损失进行衡量的意义。随机效用模型广泛用于娱乐需求建模。它根据访问成本和站点的吸引力来估计访问站点的可能性，并通过其属性的数量和质量来衡量。选择集中所有地点的吸引力指数（包括价值）除以旅行成本系数，是衡量从选择情况中获得的消费者剩余的量度。因此，随机效用模型被广泛用于测量关闭站点所造成的福利损失或质量改进所产生的福利收益。我采用了三组数据。特拉华大学设计了一项基于Internet的调查，对来自中大西洋地区的家庭进行随机抽样调查。加利福尼亚门洛帕克知识网络负责调查。该调查收集了有关历史海滩访问的数据以及2005年海滩季节访问的数据。此外，调查还询问了受访者对大西洋中部七个海滩地区的熟悉程度。我还收集了有关旅行成本和海滩特征的数据。基于海滩熟悉度的信息，我估计了三种随机效用模型，它们具有不同的选择集规格。在66个海滩的全部选择集上估算的常规随机效用模型用作基准。然后，我拟合仅在熟悉的海滩上估计的第二个条件logit模型。最后，对于熟悉和不熟悉的海滩，我估计了三个混合logit模型，这些模型在虚拟变量上具有误差成分。混合logit模型在不熟悉海滩的实用程序规范的完整性级别上有所不同。;基线模型的结果与先前的预期一致。高昂的旅行费用，私人海滩，允许车辆进入的海滩和新泽西州的海滩，减少了探视的可能性。随着海滩长度和宽度的增加，商业木板路的可用性，游乐园，海滩社区边界内的公园以及海滩作为州立公园的地位，这种可能性会增加。发达海滩和大西洋城的系数也为正。在表示良好冲浪条件的变量上，只有一个系数在统计上不显着。在仅对熟悉的海滩估计的条件对数模型中，多个海滩属性的隐含价格显着下降。这意味着，变量大西洋城，长度，私人海滩，公园内公园和海滩宽度对选择集的形成的影响要比对去海滩的人的影响更大。一旦大西洋城和较大的海滩进入人们的选择集，他们对选择概率的影响就会大大降低。；混合logit模型发现，熟悉的海滩的效用是相互关联的。换句话说，熟悉的海滩是彼此的紧密替代品，而陌生的海滩则不是。如果关闭了熟悉的海滩，则可以通过使用近距离的替代品来减轻福利损失。在人迹罕至的海滩上，由于关闭海滩而造成的福利损失往往是由旅行成本系数的变化驱动的。通过全选择集估算的有条件logit模型将提供那些损失的无偏估算。相对于基线模型，选择集形成模型中损失增加的趋势，因为可获得的替代品数量较少，这并不是海滩熟悉程度的简单函数，正如所收到的文献所暗示的那样。例如，如果相邻的海滩具有较强的替代效果，则海滩具有较大的替代效果。替代效果随海滩关闭规模的增加而增加。当关闭单个泳滩时，仅在熟悉的泳滩中，相对于基线模型，仅在熟悉的泳滩中，仅约三分之一的泳滩中损失较大。当关闭整个海滩区域时，选择集形成模型的福利损失始终超过基线模型的损失。因此，当评估导致一组海滩封闭的大规模事件时，对整个选择集进行估计的简单条件logit模型将大大低估真实损失。

著录项

  • 作者

    Spiridonov, Georgi B.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Delaware.;

  • 授予单位 University of Delaware.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Recreation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 129 p.
  • 总页数 129
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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