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Macroeconomic effects of low-inflation targets and downward nominal wage rigidity in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

机译:在动态随机一般均衡模型中,低通胀目标和名义工资刚性下降的宏观经济影响。

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摘要

During the past two decades, industrialized countries increasingly oriented monetary policy towards reducing and maintaining low inflation. A few of them, including Canada, adopted formal inflation targets. Like many other countries, Canada's formal adoption of inflation targets at the beginning of the 1990s coincided with an economic recession and subsequent sluggish recovery throughout the first half of the 1990s.; Some analysts have attributed this poor economic performance, relative to the United States, to the Bank of Canada's low-inflation policy. More recently, a number of empirical studies have further suggested that structural factors, including downward nominal wage rigidity, contributed to Canada's persistent high unemployment during the first half of the 1990s. Although the empirical literature shows evidence of these policy-induced recessions, there is no consensus on their magnitude or degree of persistence. The intellectual debate on low-inflation policy remains intense after nearly a decade of formal inflation targeting in many industrialized countries.; The thesis constructs an annual model based on the Bank of Canada's Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). In the context of this model, the thesis contributes to the current monetary policy debate by investigating how lowering the inflation target affects the level of economic activity in the short-run and in the medium- to long-run. The thesis extends the analysis by incorporating the downward nominal wage rigidity assumption into the model, and then investigates how downward nominal wage rigidity influences the macroeconomic effects of inflation reduction.; Lowering the inflation target reduces real economic activity in the short run, but has little effect in the medium- to long-run. Setting the inflation target very low increases volatility in some sectors because achieving those targets requires relatively restrictive monetary policy. The assumption of downward nominal wage rigidity generally intensifies the recessionary effects of inflation reduction, particularly at low inflation rates. However, it does not appreciably affect macroeconomic stability.
机译:在过去的二十年中,工业化国家越来越多地将货币政策导向减少和保持低通胀。其中包括加拿大在内的一些国家通过了正式的通胀目标。像许多其他国家一样,加拿大在1990年代初正式采用了通货膨胀目标,恰逢经济衰退以及随后在整个1990年代上半年的缓慢复苏。一些分析师将相对于美国的糟糕经济表现归因于加拿大银行的低通胀政策。最近,许多实证研究进一步表明,结构性因素,包括名义工资刚性下降,导致了1990年代上半年加拿大持续的高失业率。尽管经验文献显示了这些政策导致的衰退的证据,但对其持续性的程度或程度尚无共识。在许多工业化国家将近十年的正式通货膨胀目标之后,关于低通货膨胀政策的学术辩论仍然激烈。本文基于加拿大银行的加拿大政策分析模型(CPAM)构建了年度模型。在这种模型的背景下,本文通过研究降低通胀目标在短期和中长期对经济活动水平的影响,为当前的货币政策辩论做出了贡献。本文通过将名义工资刚性下降假设纳入模型来扩展分析,然后研究名义工资刚性下降如何影响通货膨胀减少的宏观经济效应。降低通货膨胀目标会在短期内减少实际的经济活动,但在中长期内几乎没有影响。将通胀目标设定得非常低会增加某些部门的波动性,因为要实现这些目标就需要相对严格的货币政策。名义工资刚性下降的假设通常会加剧通货膨胀降低的经济衰退效应,尤其是在低通货膨胀率的情况下。但是,它不会明显影响宏观经济的稳定性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kusi-Sekyere, Benjamin.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Manitoba (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Manitoba (Canada).;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2001
  • 页码 170 p.
  • 总页数 170
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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