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首页> 外文学位 >Uncertainty analysis of solute transport modeling at regional scale using soil survey data.
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Uncertainty analysis of solute transport modeling at regional scale using soil survey data.

机译：使用土壤调查数据的区域规模溶质运移模型的不确定性分析。

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摘要

Deterministic simulation models are being developed and used for understanding and quantifying major transport processes involved in the leaching of solutes from soils under various climate conditions, soil properties, and agricultural practices. Such models provide useful tools for water management and chemical application studies of non-point source pollution at regional scales. In contrast, soil information at regional scales is uncertain, in the sense that it can have many possible values.; When uncertain input data is used in simulation models, the model output data can also be expected to be uncertain. If a simulation model is used to support land and water management decisions, the uncertainty of model predictions can be of particular importance in defining the level of confidence of using the model output to influence the decision making process.; In this study a systematic approach to assessing the impact of soil data uncertainty on leaching model predictions was developed. The approach based on Monte Carlo simulations was used to estimate the probability distribution of leaching model outcomes resulting from the uncertainty of soil survey information. Map unit variability was characterized by the data uncertainty of individual soil components. The proposed method was found easy to conceptualize and to implement.; Additionally, two simulation approaches to water flow and solute movement using deterministic simulation models that differ in algorithm complexity, one being a mechanistic-type and the other a functional-type, were compared using the uncertainty analysis approach developed here. The results of the comparison suggested that the simpler functional modeling approach of water and solute movement has promise as an alternative approach with comparable precision to more complex mechanistic models when used for regional scale studies.; Current applications were reviewed and recommendations made for the appropriate use of and improvements to soil survey data for modeling pesticide leaching at regional scales.
机译：确定性仿真模型正在开发中，用于理解和量化在各种气候条件，土壤特性和农业实践下从土壤中溶出溶质所涉及的主要运输过程。这种模型为区域规模的面源污染的水管理和化学应用研究提供了有用的工具。相反，从某种意义上说，区域范围内的土壤信息可能具有很多可能的价值。当在仿真模型中使用不确定的输入数据时，也可以期望模型的输出数据是不确定的。如果使用模拟模型来支持土地和水管理决策，则模型预测的不确定性对于定义使用模型输出影响决策过程的置信度尤其重要。在这项研究中，开发了一种系统的方法来评估土壤数据不确定性对浸出模型预测的影响。基于蒙特卡洛模拟的方法被用来估计由于土壤调查信息的不确定性而导致的浸出模型结果的概率分布。地图单位的变异性由各个土壤成分的数据不确定性来表征。发现所提出的方法易于概念化和实施。此外，使用此处确定的不确定性分析方法，比较了使用算法复杂度不同的确定性仿真模型对水流和溶质运动进行仿真的两种方法，一种是机械类型，另一种是功能类型。比较结果表明，当用于区域规模研究时，较简单的水和溶质运移功能建模方法有望作为一种替代方法，具有与更复杂的机械模型相当的精度。审查了当前的应用并提出了建议，以合理使用和改进土壤调查数据，以模拟区域规模的农药浸出。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mateos, Alejandro.;

  • 作者单位

    Cornell University.;

  • 授予单位 Cornell University.;
  • 学科 Agriculture Agronomy.; Chemistry Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1995
  • 页码 230 p.
  • 总页数 230
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 农学（农艺学）;农业化学;
  • 关键词

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