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首页> 外文学位 >USING EX POST FORECASTING AND PANEL DATA TO EVALUATE LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITIES (EX POST FORECASTING, INCOME TAX).
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USING EX POST FORECASTING AND PANEL DATA TO EVALUATE LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITIES (EX POST FORECASTING, INCOME TAX).

机译：使用事后预测和面板数据评估劳工供应弹性（事后预测，所得税）。

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摘要

The tax structure can impact both individual and aggregate labor supply and may have far reaching effects on the economy as a whole. Without a clear understanding of the labor supply response (LSR), it is impossible to measure the economic impact of either the current tax structure or proposed changes to that structure. A consistent empirical estimate of LSR has not been generated. Empirical results are dependent on sample selection, choices of proxies for independent variables, measurement error, and choice of estimation techniques. Therefore, a basic assumption of this research is that LSR can not be fully specified and all empirical estimates must contain some unknown amount of bias.; A simultaneous specification search of sixteen alternative models of LSR is conducted to examine the effects of choice of proxy for the marginal wage rate, theory formulation, functional form and adjustments for selectivity bias on empirical estimates of LSR. The models are evaluated based on the size of the adjusted R{dollar}sp2{dollar}'s. Signs and significance levels of parameter estimates are compared to a priori expectations derived from theory. A "preferred" model is then selected.; Since it is explicitly recognized that the parameter estimates cannot be held to be the best unbiased linear estimate of the underlying LSR, alternative descriptive tests must be developed to address the issues of potential overfitting of the model to the data and experimenter induced bias. Ex post predictions of hours worked (for both a holdout sample from the estimation year and the regression and holdout samples using the following year of panel data) are calculated. Ex post prediction errors are generated by comparing the forecasted value for the dependent variable with the observed value. Root mean squared errors and inequality coefficients are calculated and used to evaluate the predictive ability of each of the models.; For both men and women, after-tax wage proxies generate highest adjusted R{dollar}sp2{dollar}'s. There is no descriptive evidence indicating that these results are due to an overfitting of the models to the data. Uncompensated wage coefficients for men and women are relatively close in size and carry negative signs.
机译：税收结构可以影响个人和总的劳动力供应，并且可能对整个经济产生深远的影响。如果没有对劳动力供给响应（LSR）的清晰了解，就无法衡量当前税收结构或对该结构提出的建议的经济影响。尚未生成一致的LSR经验估计。经验结果取决于样本的选择，自变量代理的选择，测量误差以及估算技术的选择。因此，这项研究的基本假设是LSR不能完全确定，所有经验估计都必须包含一些未知量的偏差。同时进行16种LSR替代模型的规范搜索，以检验边际工资率的代理选择，理论表述，功能形式以及选择性偏差对LSR经验估计的调整的影响。根据调整后的R {dollar} sp2 {dollar}的大小评估模型。将参数估计的符号和显着性水平与从理论得出的先验期望进行比较。然后选择“首选”模型。由于已经明确认识到参数估计不能被视为基础LSR的最佳无偏线性估计，因此必须开发替代性描述性测试来解决模型可能与数据过度拟合以及实验者引起的偏差的问题。计算了工作时间的事后预测（对于来自估算年度的保留样本以及使用下一年面板数据的回归样本和保留样本）。通过将因变量的预测值与观察值进行比较，可以生成事后预测误差。计算均方根误差和不等式系数，并将其用于评估每个模型的预测能力。对于男性和女性，税后工资代理都会产生最高的调整后的R {dollar} sp2 {dollar}。没有描述性证据表明这些结果是由于模型对数据的过度拟合所致。男性和女性的未补偿工资系数规模相对较近，带有负号。

著录项

  • 作者

    SPINDLE, ROXANNE MARIE.;

  • 作者单位

    UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER.;

  • 授予单位 UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Accounting.; Economics Labor.
  • 学位 PH.D.
  • 年度 1991
  • 页码 209 p.
  • 总页数 209
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财务管理、经济核算;劳动经济;
  • 关键词

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