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Application of a general equilibrium model for agricultural policy analysis: A case study of fertilizer input subsidy in rice production for Indonesia.

机译:一般均衡模型在农业政策分析中的应用:以印度尼西亚大米生产中肥料投入补贴为例。

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摘要

Scope and method of study. This study was designed to analyze the economic impact of the Bimas rice intensification program on socio-economic groups in Indonesia utilizing a general equilibrium framework. Specific objectives were to: (1) develop a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Indonesia identifying agriculture and the Bimas program and disaggregated by socio-economic and institutional groups, production and commodity activities, factor income payments, trade, and other variables; (2) estimate the general equilibrium results of reduced fertilizer subsidy to Bimas rice producers; (3) estimate the general equilibrium results of alternative government programs of revenue transfers, agricultural employment generation, and increased agricultural non-food exports; and; (4) evaluate the results of alternative policy formulations of the Bimas program and of the alternative government programs on variables such as commodity prices, household real incomes, and basic nutrition.;Findings and conclusions. Results of the general equilibrium model indicate that reducing the fertilizer subsidy significantly affects sector outputs, input and commodity prices, household real incomes, government and other institutional revenues, and rice consumption. Removing all fertilizer subsidies and holding commodity exports constant at the base price increases the aggregate price index by 12.1 percent, reduces total household real income by 4.1 percent, increases government revenue by 1.5 percent, and decreases rice consumption for all households. Results indicate that the fertilizer subsidy benefits agricultural laborers and consumers the most. Reducing the subsidy has the least adverse effects on agricultural producers. Transferring government revenue to households equal to savings from reduced subsidies does not completely restore household incomes. The alternative government programs had mixed results. Employment generation had positive affects on household incomes, moderate affects on commodity price increases, positive affects on rice consumption, and significant negative affects on exports. Increased agricultural non-food exports had moderate affects on household real incomes, significant affects on increasing commodity prices, negative affects on rice consumption, and positive affects on exports.
机译:研究范围和方法。本研究旨在使用一般均衡框架来分析Bimas水稻强化计划对印度尼西亚社会经济群体的经济影响。具体目标是:(1)为印度尼西亚建立社会核算矩阵(SAM),以识别农业和Bimas计划,并按社会经济和体制团体,生产和商品活动,要素收入支付,贸易和其他变量进行分类; (2)估算降低对Bimas水稻生产者的肥料补贴的总体均衡结果; (3)估计替代性的政府转移收入,农业就业机会和农业非食品出口增加计划的总体均衡结果;和; (4)在商品价格,家庭实际收入和基本营养等变量上评估Bimas计划和政府替代计划的替代政策制定的结果;发现和结论。总体均衡模型的结果表明,减少化肥补贴将显着影响部门产出,投入和商品价格,家庭实际收入,政府和其他机构性收入以及稻米消费。取消所有肥​​料补贴并使商品出口保持基本价格不变,可使总价格指数提高12.1%,使家庭实际总收入减少4.1%,使政府收入增加1.5%,并减少所有家庭的大米消费。结果表明,化肥补贴使农业劳动者和消费者受益最大。减少补贴对农业生产者的不利影响最小。将政府收入转移给家庭相当于减少补贴所产生的储蓄,并不能完全恢复家庭收入。替代性政府计划的结果参差不齐。就业机会对家庭收入产生积极影响,对商品价格上涨产生适度影响,对大米消费产生积极影响,对出口产生重大负面影响。农业非食品出口增加对家庭实际收入产生中等影响,对商品价格上涨产生重大影响,对稻米消费产生负面影响,对出口产生正面影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    Suprapto, Ato.;

  • 作者单位

    Oklahoma State University.;

  • 授予单位 Oklahoma State University.;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1988
  • 页码 227 p.
  • 总页数 227
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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