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POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND AMERICAN MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES- THE CASES OF POST-WAR INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT (RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS).

机译:政治,经济学和美国宏观经济结果-战后通货膨胀和失业(理性预期)的情况。

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摘要

One of the most important empirical propositions to emerge in the political economy literature is the political control of the economy hypothesis. This hypothesis states that political life affects macroeconomic outcomes in a regular persistent fashion. However, according to Tufte (1978, 138), it has been limited to studies of economic consequences of public intervention. In the private sector of the economy it was claimed: "...the political control of the economy operates at the margin--a shift in the inflation rate here, a fluctuation in unemployment there--rather than on the underlying structure of the economy, public and private" (Tufte, op. cit.). I propose to extend and refine this hypothesis so as to include private economic activity that transpires outside the scope of political control within the 'political control' hypothesis.;At the empirical level the interaction model developed here proves superior to other political models, insensitive to structural changes in the underlying political arena namely, administration changes. It is more inclusive in its identification of the Legislative constraint and relevant economic determinants on macroeconomic outcomes. Predictions about the future levels of both inflation and unemployment manifest the interdependency of the political and economic sets of determinants employed in the private political control of the economy hypothesis. Policy recommendations implied by the model as to the sole directly manipulated determinant, the budget, are obvious yet discouraging. The model provides also with a set of hypotheses pertaining to the feedback loop and a fuller assessment of the Eastonian system approach.;The private political control of the economy hypothesis departs from previous research attempts to confront the "politics versus economics" dilemma in public policy literature. It offers a synthesis to one-sided, economic or political, conclusions made in prior endeavors. The hypothesis presents political determinants with a new meaning, an expectational one, in the macroeconomic field. Politics has no direct stimuli effects on macroeconomic outcomes when controlled for economic conditions, policy activated as well as environmental factors. The applicability of an expectational theory, like ratex, is thus of primary import to political research aiming at macroeconomic explanations.
机译:政治经济学文献中出现的最重要的经验命题之一是对经济假说的政治控制。该假设表明,政治生活以固定的方式持续影响宏观经济结果。然而,根据塔夫特(Tufte(1978,138)),它仅限于研究公共干预的经济后果。在经济的私营部门中,有人宣称:“……对经济的政治控制处于边际作用-这里的通货膨胀率在变化,那里的失业率在波动-而不是在经济的基本结构上。经济,公共和私人”(Tufte,同上)。我建议扩展和完善该假设,以便将在政治控制范围之外发生的私人经济活动纳入“政治控制”假设中。在经验层面,此处开发的互动模型证明优于其他政治模型,对潜在政治领域的结构性变化,即行政管理变化。它在确定立法约束和有关宏观经济成果的相关经济决定因素方面更具包容性。对通货膨胀和失业率未来水平的预测表明,在经济假说的私人政治控制中采用的决定因素的政治和经济因素集是相互依存的。该模型暗含的关于唯一直接操纵的决定因素即预算的政策建议是显而易见的,但却令人沮丧。该模型还提供了一组与反馈回路有关的假设,并对伊斯顿体系的方法进行了更全面的评估。;对经济假说的私人政治控制不同于以往针对公共政策中“政治与经济”困境的研究尝试。文献。它综合了先前所做​​努力的单方面的经济或政治结论。该假设在宏观经济领域为政治决定因素提供了一种新的含义,一种预期的含义。当受到经济状况,政策的启动以及环境因素的控制时,政治对宏观经济成果没有直接的刺激作用。因此,期望率理论(如ratex)的适用性对于旨在进行宏观经济解释的政治研究具有重要意义。

著录项

  • 作者

    MEVORACH, BARUCH.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Minnesota.;

  • 授予单位 University of Minnesota.;
  • 学科 Political science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1986
  • 页码 235 p.
  • 总页数 235
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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