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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations
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Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations

机译：通货膨胀预期和宏观经济动态：理性预期与外推预期的案例

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摘要

The motivation of this paper is to understand the effects of coupling a macroeconomic model of inflation rate dynamics, relying on an aggregate expectation, to a heterogeneous expectations framework. A standard model composed of Okun's law, an expectations-augmented Phillips curve and an aggregate demand relation is extended to allow agents to select between trend-following and rational expectations to predict the future inflation rate. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we investigate the model's dynamics and discuss the conditions under which the extended model leads to endogenous fluctuations in macroeconomic variables. Some preliminary results are offered for the case in which a Taylor-like monetary policy rule is included in the model.
机译：本文的动机是要了解将通货膨胀率动力学的宏观模型（依赖于总期望）耦合到异类期望框架中所产生的影响。扩展了由奥肯定律，预期增长的菲利普斯曲线和总需求关系组成的标准模型，以允许代理商在趋势跟踪和理性预期之间进行选择，以预测未来的通货膨胀率。使用分析和数值工具的混合，我们研究了模型的动力学，并讨论了扩展模型导致宏观经济变量内生波动的条件。对于在模型中包含类似泰勒的货币政策规则的情况，提供了一些初步结果。

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