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A DYNAMIC MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY.

机译：不确定环境下的质量管理动态模型。

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摘要

Effective environmental quality control, which is achieved through the enforcement of pollution level standards, is hindered by various types of uncertainty. In this study, the following four elements of uncertainty enter the analysis: (1) uncertainty in the achievement of a given set of environmental quality goals (2) uncertainty in the measurement of emissions and pollution levels (3) uncertainty about the form and parameter values of the dispersion relationships and (4) uncertainty about the prices in the output/input markets. The objective of this research is to explore, in the context of a set of stochastic control problems, the implications of the above elements of uncertainty for emission, price information gathering and measurement of emission and concentration controls as well as the rates of information acquisition about the unknown parameters of the dispersion relationships.Several conclusions are drawn from this study: (1) when the transfer function parameters of the environmental system are unknown, and thus have to be estimated, the effluent charge required for efficiency depends not only upon the estimates of the diffusion coefficients, but also upon the uncertainty (variance-covariance matrix) of the (estimated) parameters (2) in the case of a risk adverse planner and risk neutral polluters, efficiency requires the imposition of an input tax as a means of internalizing risk costs and (3) under the assumptions specified in Chapter V, the Separation Theorem shows that the optimal environmental controls are three way separable in the sense that the optimal conditions may be stated in terms of three problems: the first, a multi-period stochastic control problem is concerned with the simultaneous choice of emission and price information gathering controls, the second, a nonlinear deterministic control problem, with the optimal pollution level measurement controls, and the third with the optimal emission rate measurement controls.More precisely, this study has three main objectives. The first objective is to present a new stochastic externality control framework under the assumption of imperfect information about the output/input prices, the environmental quality standards, the physical model parameters, uncontrollable exogenous influences and imprecise measurements of emission rates and pollution levels. The second objective is to provide implementable stochastic and adaptive control schedules for the determination of single period as well as multiperiod environmental control strategies.
机译：各种不确定性阻碍了通过执行污染水平标准而实现的有效环境质量控制。在这项研究中，以下四个不确定性因素进入分析：（1）在实现给定的一组环境质量目标中存在不确定性（2）在排放和污染水平的测量中存在不确定性（3）关于形式和参数的不确定性色散关系的值和（4）产出/投入市场价格的不确定性。这项研究的目的是在一系列随机控制问题的背景下，探索上述不确定性因素对排放，价格信息收集和排放与浓度控制的测量以及关于以下方面的信息获取率的影响。这项研究得出了几个结论：（1）当环境系统的传递函数参数未知时，因此必须对其进行估算，效率所需的废水排放量不仅取决于估算值在风险不利的计划者和风险中立的污染者的情况下，对于扩散系数，以及对（估计）参数的不确定性（方差-协方差矩阵）（2），效率要求征收进项税作为一种手段内部化风险成本和（3）在第五章指定的假设下，分离定理表明最优环境成本可以从三个问题来说明最优条件的意义上说，ntrol是三种方式可分离的：第一，多周期随机控制问题与排放和价格信息收集控制的同时选择有关，第二，非线性确定性控制问题，具有最佳污染水平测量控制，第三个具有最佳排放率测量控制。更准确地说，本研究具有三个主要目标。第一个目标是在假设关于产出/投入价格，环境质量标准，物理模型参数，不可控的外源影响以及排放率和污染水平的测量不准确的信息不完善的前提下，提出一个新的随机外部性控制框架。第二个目标是为确定单个周期以及多周期环境控制策略提供可实施的随机和自适应控制计划。

著录项

  • 作者

    NIANIARA, ARTEMIS.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Riverside.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Riverside.;
  • 学科 Business Administration General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1982
  • 页码 424 p.
  • 总页数 424
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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