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Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Analysis of International Trade, with Application to Commodity Exports.

机译:国际贸易的结构协整向量自回归分析及其在商品出口中的应用。

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摘要

This research examines the structural relationship between volume of exports, economic growth, and real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of temporal and permanent shocks on the evolution of export volume, foreign income, and real exchange rate. The conceptual framework is applied to U.S. agricultural exports to examine the sector's international competitiveness and opportunities for export extensification. Results show that on average, growth in foreign income leads to a greater increase in exports to developing countries than in exports to developed countries. Furthermore, depreciation of the U.S. dollar leads to a more than proportionate increase in exports of most commodities. In addition, developing countries are more sensitive to disequilibrating shocks, and more than half of the deviation from the equilibrium level of exports is adjusted within one year.;Results suggest that the present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, and that U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers (expanding exports along the intensive margin) but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to hitherto unexplored emerging markets (expanding exports along the extensive margin). The paper provides quantitative estimates to project the evolving composition of food demand and the location of future markets; these estimates can help to design policies to avail of the market opportunities for growth latent in emerging economies, and mitigate effects of country specific shocks on aggregate exports.;Finally, results suggest that the cointegrating vector autoregressive framework is shown to incorporates insights from economic theory and both short- and long-run parameter estimates. This accounts for the complex interrelationships among the core macroeconomic variables and provides a rich analysis of the short-run dynamics of the model in response to unexpected changes in economic variables.
机译:这项研究研究了出口量,经济增长和实际汇率波动之间的结构关系,以及时间和永久性冲击对出口量,外国收入和实际汇率演变的影响。该概念框架适用于美国农产品出口,以检验该行业的国际竞争力和扩大出口的机会。结果表明,平均而言,外国收入的增长导致对发展中国家的出口增长大于对发达国家的出口增长。此外,美元贬值导致大多数商品的出口增长成比例。此外,发展中国家对失衡的冲击更加敏感,与出口均衡水平之间的偏差有一半以上在一年之内进行了调整。结果表明,目前美国向少数发达国家出口的农产品日益集中问题在于,美国的农产品出口不仅可以从旨在增加与现有发展中国家进口商的贸易的政策中受益(沿密集边缘扩大出口),而且可以从旨在向迄今未开发的新兴市场出口农产品的政策中受益(沿出口扩展)。广泛的利润)。该文件提供了定量估计,以预测不断变化的粮食需求和未来市场的位置;这些估计值可以帮助设计政策,以利用新兴经济体潜在的增长机会,并减轻国家/地区特定冲击对总出口的影响。最后,结果表明,协整向量自回归框架显示出结合了经济理论的见解以及短期和长期参数估算。这说明了核心宏观经济变量之间的复杂相互关系,并针对经济变量的意外变化提供了对该模型短期动态的丰富分析。

著录项

  • 作者

    Jha, Jaya.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Minnesota.;

  • 授予单位 University of Minnesota.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Agricultural economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 243 p.
  • 总页数 243
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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