EFFECTIVE DEMAND, EXOGENOUS NORMAL UTILIZATION AND ENDOGENOUS CAPACITY IN THE LONG RUN: EVIDENCE FROM A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR THE USA

Christian Schoder

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EFFECTIVE DEMAND, EXOGENOUS NORMAL UTILIZATION AND ENDOGENOUS CAPACITY IN THE LONG RUN: EVIDENCE FROM A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR THE USA

机译：长效的有效需求，外生正常利用和内生能力：来自美国的联合矢量自动回归分析的证据

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Using Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regression analysis, we provide evidence for the US manufacturing sector that production capacities adjust endogenously to current output in the long run. The rate of capacity utilization, i.e. the output-capacity ratio, is found to be stationary since production capacities respond endogenously to changes in current output and not vice versa. Hence, the principle of effective demand in a growth context, by which a permanent demand shock has a permanent growth effect, is consistent with the stylized fact of a stationary rate of capacity utilization since production capacities are endogenous in the long run.

机译：使用协整矢量自动回归分析，我们为美国制造业提供了证据，表明从长远来看，生产能力会根据当前产量进行内生调整。由于生产能力是内生地对电流输出的变化做出反应，而不是相反，因此发现生产能力利用率即输出能力比是固定的。因此，在增长环境中有效需求的原理（永久性需求冲击具有永久性增长效应）与稳定的产能利用率的典型事实相一致，因为从长期来看，生产能力是内生的。

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《Metroeconomica》 |2014年第2期|298-320|共23页
作者
Christian Schoder;
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Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) Hans-Boeckler Str. 39 40476 Duesseldorf Germany;

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EFFECTIVE DEMAND, EXOGENOUS NORMAL UTILIZATION AND ENDOGENOUS CAPACITY IN THE LONG RUN: EVIDENCE FROM A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR THE USA

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