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Assessment of soil corrosion in underground pipelines via statistical inference

机译:通过统计推断评估地下管线中的土壤腐蚀

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摘要

In the oil industry, underground pipelines are the most preferred means of transporting a large amount of liquid product. However, a considerable number of unforeseen incidents due to corrosion failure are reported each year. Since corrosion in underground pipelines is caused by physicochemical interactions between the material (steel pipeline) and the environment (soil), the assessment of soil as a corrosive environment is indispensable.;Because of the complex characteristics of soil as a corrosion precursor influencing the dissolution process, soil cannot be explained fully by conventional semi-empirical methodologies defined in controlled settings. The uncertainties inherited from the dynamic and heterogeneous underground environment should be considered.;Therefore, this work presents the unification of direct assessment of soil and in-line inspection (ILI) with a probabilistic model to categorize soil corrosion. To pursue this task, we employed a model-based clustering analysis via Gaussian mixture models. The analysis was performed on data collected from southeastern Mexico. The clustering approach helps to prioritize areas to be inspected in terms of underground conditions and can improve repair decision making beyond what is offered by current assessment methodologies.;This study also addresses two important issues related to in-situ data: missing data and truncated data. The typical approaches for treating missing data utilized in civil engineering are ad hoc methods. However, these conventional approaches may cause several critical problems such as biased estimates, artificially reduced variance, and loss of statistical power. Therefore, this study presents a variant of EM algorithms called Informative EM (IEM) to perform clustering analysis without filling in missing values prior to the analysis. This model-based method introduces additional cluster-specific Bernoulli parameters to exploit the nonuniformity of the frequency of missing values across clusters.;In-line inspection tools (ILI) are commonly used for pipeline defect detection and characterization with advanced technologies such as magnetic flux leakage (MFL) and ultrasonic tools (UT). Each technology has its limitation for minimum detectable defect size. As a result, the data measured by different technologies are difficult to compare under the same modeling framework. In the present study, this problem will be addressed, considering two datasets measured by MFL and UT. Moreover, a truncated generalized exponential (TGE) distribution is introduced to describe the observed data. The non-informative Jeffreys' prior is used to establish the Bayesian updating algorithm, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is adopted to estimate the posterior distribution of model.
机译:在石油工业中,地下管道是运输大量液体产品的首选方法。但是,每年都报告由于腐蚀失效而导致的大量不可预见的事件。由于地下管道的腐蚀是由材料(钢管道)和环境(土壤)之间的物理化学相互作用引起的,因此必须将土壤评估为腐蚀性环境;因为土壤作为腐蚀前体的复杂特性会影响溶解在这个过程中,土壤不能用受控环境中定义的传统半经验方法充分解释。应考虑动态和非均质地下环境所带来的不确定性。因此,本工作提出了对土壤直接评估和在线检验(ILI)以及概率模型对土壤腐蚀进行分类的统一方法。为了完成此任务,我们通过高斯混合模型采用了基于模型的聚类分析。分析是从墨西哥东南部收集的数据进行的。聚类方法有助于根据地下条件对要检查的区域进行优先排序,并且可以改善维修决策的范围,超出当前评估方法所提供的范围。该研究还解决了与现场数据相关的两个重要问题:数据丢失和数据被截断。处理土木工程中使用的缺失数据的典型方法是临时方法。但是,这些常规方法可能会导致一些严重问题,例如估计偏差,人为减少的方差以及统计能力的损失。因此,本研究提出了一种称为信息EM(IEM)的EM算法变体,可以执行聚类分析,而无需在分析之前填写缺失值。这种基于模型的方法引入了额外的特定于群集的伯努利参数,以利用群集中缺失值频率的不均匀性;在线检查工具(ILI)通常用于管道缺陷的检测和特征描述,并使用诸如磁通量这样的先进技术泄漏(MFL)和超声工具(UT)。每种技术都有其最小可检测缺陷尺寸的限制。结果,在相同的建模框架下很难比较由不同技术测得的数据。在本研究中,考虑到MFL和UT测量的两个数据集,将解决此问题。此外,引入了截断的广义指数(TGE)分布来描述观察到的数据。使用非信息量的Jeffreys先验建立贝叶斯更新算法,并采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法估计模型的后验分布。

著录项

  • 作者

    Yajima, Ayako.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Akron.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Akron.;
  • 学科 Civil engineering.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 151 p.
  • 总页数 151
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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