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首页> 外文学位 >Understanding and Capturing Geographic Variability in Vulnerability of Natural Resources to Climate Change Through Modeling and Workshops.
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Understanding and Capturing Geographic Variability in Vulnerability of Natural Resources to Climate Change Through Modeling and Workshops.

机译：通过建模和研讨会了解和捕获自然资源对气候变化的脆弱性的地理变异性。

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摘要

Climate patterns exert a strong influence on many ecological systems. Understanding how a changing climate will affect our natural systems is a necessary prerequisite for developing appropriate management strategies that will enable these systems to persist into the future. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is a native species that is strongly influenced by climate and recently, unprecedented outbreaks have occurred in Canada and at high elevations in the U.S. I investigated weather influences on the recent beetle outbreak in whitebark pine forests in four geographic regions of the western U. S. I used a generalized additive logistic regression model of the presence of whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles to: 1) understand weather effects on the recent outbreaks, 2) diagnose the relative importance of weather conditions prior to and during the recent outbreaks, and 3) estimate future weather suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles. Whitebark pine mortality increased with increasing winter minimum temperature in all regions, but the magnitude of the effect at a given temperature was different. The effects of seasonal (September-November and April-August) temperatures and summer precipitation were different across regions at the outer ranges of observed temperature and precipitation. In all regions the recent outbreaks appeared to be initiated by warm winters. In some regions outbreaks coincided with low precipitation as well. These differences in weather influences led to differences in estimates of future weather suitability, even though there is a common pattern of increasing temperatures across regions, with future weather suitability increasing in two regions and declining in two regions. Statistical modeling is one way to assess geographic variability in climate change vulnerability. Conducting workshops to elicit expert opinion is another. I developed and tested a framework for capturing geographic variability in climate change vulnerability during a regional-scale vulnerability assessment. My revised framework is structured around pathways of climate influence on species or resources. This structure provides a means of capturing potential hypotheses of climate influence that can then be used to develop an adaptive monitoring program that is tailored to geographic regions but coordinated across administrative and ecological boundaries.
机译：气候模式对许多生态系统都有很大影响。了解气候变化将如何影响我们的自然系统是制定适当的管理策略以使这些系统能够持续到未来的必要先决条件。山松甲虫（Dendroctonus tankerosae Hopkins）是受气候影响强烈的本地物种，最近，加拿大和美国都发生了史无前例的暴发。在四个树皮松树林中，我调查了天气对近期甲虫暴发的影响在美国西部的地理区域中，我使用了山松甲虫引起的白皮松死亡率的广义加性Logistic回归模型，以：1）了解天气对近期疫情的影响，2）在天气之前和期间确定天气条件的相对重要性最近的爆发，以及3）估计未来天气适合山松甲虫引起的白皮松树死亡。在所有地区，白皮松的死亡率都随着冬季最低温度的升高而增加，但是在给定温度下影响的大小不同。在观察到的温度和降水的最外层区域，季节性（9月至11月和4月至8月）温度和夏季降水的影响在不同地区有所不同。在所有地区，最近的暴发似乎都是由温暖的冬天引起的。在某些地区，暴发与降水量偏低同时发生。这些天气影响的差异导致未来天气适用性估计值的差异，即使存在跨区域温度升高的常见模式，两个地区的未来天气适用性也在增加，而两个地区却在下降。统计建模是评估气候变化脆弱性中地理变异性的一种方法。举办研讨会以征求专家意见是另一回事。我开发并测试了一个框架，该框架用于在区域规模的脆弱性评估期间捕获气候变化脆弱性的地理变异性。我修订后的框架围绕气候对物种或资源影响的途径构建。这种结构提供了一种捕获潜在的气候影响假设的方法，然后可以将其用于开发适应性监测程序，该程序针对地理区域而定，但跨行政和生态边界进行协调。

著录项

  • 作者

    Buotte, Polly C.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Idaho.;

  • 授予单位 University of Idaho.;
  • 学科 Climate change.;Environmental science.;Ecology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 150 p.
  • 总页数 150
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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