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Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

机译：气候变化情景下的区域和城市空气质量模拟

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摘要

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.
机译：更好地了解气候变化与空气质量之间的相互作用是研究和政策的新兴重点。气候变化将带来气候系统的变化，这将影响空气污染物的浓度和扩散。本研究的主要目的是评估2050年气候变化对葡萄牙和波尔图市区的空气质量的影响。首先，对葡萄牙大陆上2002年至2012年期间的空气质量进行了评估和表征。结果表明，NO2，PM10和O3是葡萄牙的关键污染物。此外，在全国主要城市地区（波尔图和里斯本）调查了气象对O3，NO2和PM10含量的影响，并证实了O3在大多数成分中与温度具有统计学上的显着关系。结果还表明，排放控制策略是NO2和PM10水平的主要调节剂。之后，在了解了国家空气质量问题以及气象对历史空气质量水平的影响之后，对空气质量建模系统WRF-CAMx进行了测试，并准备了进行模拟所需的输入以实现这项工作的主要目标。对于所需的空气质量建模输入，开发了RCP情景下的排放预测（EmiPro-RCP）模型，以帮助估算温室气体和常见空气污染物的未来排放清单。此外，估计葡萄牙目前的排放量，并进行了更高的详细分类，以改善空气质量模拟的性能。在葡萄牙和波尔图市区对空气质量建模系统WRF / CAMx进行了测试和评估，结果指出，该系统是分析气候变化下空气质量的适当工具。为此，使用CAMx 6.0版对历史时期和未来（2045-2050年）的空气质量进行了区域模拟，以评估模拟的未来气候和人为排放预测对研究区域空气质量的影响。气候和排放预测是在RCP8.5情景下得出的。模拟的结果指出，如果人为排放量在2050年保持不变，葡萄牙的NO2，PM10和O3浓度将增加。除气候变化影响外，如果考虑到人为排放的预计值，则葡萄牙和波尔图市区的NO2年平均浓度会显着下降，相反，葡萄牙的PM10年度平均浓度会上升，而波尔图市区的PM10浓度会下降。 O3的结果主要是由于臭氧前体的减少，城市地区的减少量增加以及周边地区的增加所致。对波尔图市区的两个模拟所进行的所有分析都支持，对于PM10和O3，极端值的出现将会增加，超过年度立法参数，并且每天都有更多的超出值。这项研究构成了一种创新的科学工具，可以帮助未来的空气质量管理，以减轻未来的气候变化对空气质量的影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sá, Maria Elisa Seabra Azevedo Cunha e.;

  • 作者单位

    Universidade de Aveiro (Portugal).;

  • 授予单位 Universidade de Aveiro (Portugal).;
  • 学科 Environmental engineering.;Atmospheric sciences.;Climate change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 243 p.
  • 总页数 243
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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