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Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease

机译：一个区域规模花粉排放和交通建模框架的发展为研究气候变化对呼吸道过敏性疾病的影响

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Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations of allergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus cause serious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking the airborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, and human allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is a key step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developed that treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the WRF/CMAQ air-quality modeling system. The >Simulator of the >Timing >and >Magnitude of >Pollen >Season (STaMPS) model was used to generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphere by wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperature and/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexible with respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functional types (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized by considering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values. The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based on pollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling framework was conducted for southern California for the period from March to June 2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of Southern California's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O3, PM2.5, and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxide in study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12 km and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen genera were included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree, and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modeling framework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations, and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model shows reasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollen concentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollen pool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations. Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollen releases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations.
机译：暴露于生物气溶胶过敏原（例如花粉）会导致敏感人群的过敏性气道疾病（AAD）恶化，从而引起严重的公共卫生问题。通过将空气中的花粉水平，可吸入的致敏物质的浓度以及当前和未来的气候条件下的人类过敏反应联系起来，评估这些健康影响是迈向预防和适应行动的关键一步。为此，开发了一个区域规模的花粉排放和运输建模框架，该框架将过敏性花粉视为WRF / CMAQ空气质量建模系统中的非反应示踪剂。 > T 的> S 模拟器，其> P ollen > a a > M 使用strong> S 原因（STaMPS）模型生成每日花粉池，然后将其通过风向大气排放。 STaMPS受物种特定的气象（温度和/或降水）阈值条件驱动，并且被设计为在表示植被物种和植物功能类型（PFT）方面具有灵活性。通过考虑花粉池，摩擦速度和风阈值来设置每小时花粉排放通量的参数。基于花粉的粒径和密度，估计每种花粉的干沉降速度。在2010年3月至2010年6月期间，对南加州的花粉建模框架进行了评估。该时期与南加州大学儿童健康研究（CHS）的观察结果吻合，其中包括O3，PM2.5和花粉计数以及研究参与者呼出气中一氧化氮的测量。构建了两个水平分辨率分别为12 km和4 km的嵌套域，其中包括六个有代表性的过敏花粉属：桦树，胡桃树，桑树，橄榄树，橡树和，草。在当前的参数化方案下，建模框架倾向于低估核桃和峰值橡树花粉的浓度，并倾向于高估草粉的花粉浓度。该模型与观察到的桦树，橄榄和桑树花粉浓度显示出合理的一致性。敏感性研究表明，花粉池的估计是模拟花粉浓度不确定性的主要来源。在排放模型和观察到的花粉释放模式之间达成一致是成功进行花粉浓度模拟的关键。

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